While the mid-term results for 2022 are not finalised, one thing is becoming clear. The “great” Red Wave did not materialize although the Republicans seem to be having some success. Hear Sen. (R) Graham’s thoughts on the night of the midterms below.
Consideration is already being given to analyzing the results to see if any lessons can be gleaned. There will be plenty of time to examine exit polls, but our first thought is to look at some basic facts and ask the question: What makes a red state red and a blue state blue?
Aside from any issues of election integrity, media manipulation, or state-specific political campaigns, let’s take a look at the table below for more fundamental data by state. Based on the outline of state Senate races in the 2022 midterm elections, we wanted to look at a group of states identified as red (or red-leaning) and blue (or blue-leaning) from a geographic area relatively similar. Consider the following.
Population by state: source data.
Red States: Iowa (3.2m), Missouri (6.1m), Kentucky (4.5m), Ohio (11.8m) and Indiana (6.8m) Blue States: Illinois (12.8 m), Pennsylvania (13 m), Georgia (10.9 m) m), and Michigan (10.1 m) Note: Blue states tend to be more populous than red states.
Population density by state – source data.
Red states: Iowa (58), Missouri (90), Kentucky (115), Ohio (290), and Indiana (191) Blue states: Illinois (231), Pennsylvania (292), Georgia (190), and Michigan (179). ) Note: Blue states tend to be more densely populated than red states.
Urbanization percentage: source data.
Red states: Iowa (64%), Missouri (70.4%), Kentucky (58.4%), Ohio (77.9%) and Indiana (72.4%) Blue states: Illinois (88.5%) , Pennsylvania (78.7%), Georgia ( 75.1%), and Michigan (74.6%) Note: Blue states tend to have more urban areas than red states.
Demographic data by age: source data.
Red states: Iowa (38.3), Missouri (38.7), Kentucky (39), Ohio (39.5), and Indiana (37.8) Blue states: Illinois (38.3), Pennsylvania (40.9 ), Georgia (36.9) and Michigan (39.8) ) Note: Few statistical differences.
Union membership: source data.
Red states: Iowa (6.5%), Missouri (9%), Kentucky (7.2%), Ohio (12%) and Indiana (9%) Blue states: Illinois (13.9%), Pennsylvania (12 .9%), Georgia ( 4.8%), and Michigan (13.3%) Note: Blue states tend to have more unions than red states.
Percentage of registered voters / voter turnout by state – source data.
Red states: Iowa (68%/76%), Missouri (70%/75.7%), Kentucky (78%/75.9%), Ohio (65.5%/77%) and Indiana (69.4 %/70%) Blue states: Illinois (68%/74%), Pennsylvania (66.7%/76%), Georgia (64%/71%) and Michigan (80%/73.8%) Note: Few statistical differences.
Voting by party affiliation (Democrat/Republican) by state – source data.
Red states: Iowa (41%/40%), Missouri (41/42%), Kentucky (43%/44%), Ohio (40%/42%) and Indiana (37%/42%) Blue states: Illinois (48%/33%), Pennsylvania (46%/39%), Georgia (41%/41%), and Michigan (47%/34%) Note: Party affiliation voting favors blue states.
Violent crime rates: source data.
Red States: Iowa (303.49), Missouri (542.71), Kentucky (259.09), Ohio (308.76), and Indiana (357.68) Blue States: Illinois (425.91), Pennsylvania (389 .52), Georgia (400.09) and Michigan (478.01) ) Comment: Blue states tend to have higher crime rates. Note: Blue states tend to have higher crime rates than red states.
Drug overdose rates: source data.
Red states: Iowa (14.3), Missouri (32.1), Kentucky (49.2), Ohio (47.2), and Indiana (36.7) Blue states: Illinois (28.1), Pennsylvania (42 .4), Georgia (18), and Michigan (28.6) ) Note: Too much data scatter, although red states have a slightly higher drug overdose problem.
Median family income: source data.
Red States: Iowa ($61.8), Missouri ($57.3), Kentucky ($52.2), Ohio ($58.1), and Indiana ($58.2) Blue States: Illinois ($68.4 $), Pennsylvania ($63.6), Georgia ($61.2), and Michigan ($59.2) ) Note: Blue states tend to have higher incomes than red states.
Cost of living: source data.
Red states: Iowa (89.9), Missouri (89.8), Kentucky (93.1), Ohio (91.3), and Indiana (90.6) Blue states: Illinois (94.3), Pennsylvania (102 .5), Georgia (88.8), and Michigan (91.3) ) Note: Blue states tend to have a higher cost of living than red.
Quality of life (a lower number is considered better) – source data.
Red states: Iowa (12), Missouri (28), Kentucky (41), Ohio (36), and Indiana (32) Blue states: Illinois (30), Pennsylvania (40), Georgia (18), and Michigan (38). ) Note: Few statistical differences with too much dispersion.
Whitest by Race States: Source Data.
Red states: Iowa (89.9%), Missouri (83.7%), Kentucky (87.3%), Ohio (82.5), and Indiana (83.5%) Blue states: Illinois (73.1% ), Pennsylvania (80.1%), Georgia (58.2%) %), and Michigan (79.9%) Note: Red states tend to have a higher white racial component than blue.
Education rating (a lower number is considered better) – source data.
Red states: Iowa (18), Missouri (30), Kentucky (36), Ohio (31), and Indiana (22) Blue states: Illinois (11), Pennsylvania (37), Georgia (25), and Michigan (38). ) Note: Small statistical differences, albeit a slight advantage, are seen in red states.
Higher education ranking (a lower number is considered better) – source data.
Red states: Iowa (92.5%), Missouri (90.6%), Kentucky (87.2%), Ohio (90.78), and Indiana (89.3%) Blue states: Illinois (89.6%) ), Pennsylvania (90.1%), Georgia (87.9%) %), and Michigan (91.3%) Note: Few statistical differences, despite many myths told in the media.
Cost per student by state: source data.
Red States: Iowa ($11.3K), Missouri ($10.4K), Kentucky ($10K), Ohio ($12.8K), and Indiana ($12.3K) Blue States: Illinois ( $12.5K), Pennsylvania ($15K), Georgia ($10.8K), and Michigan ($12K) Note: Little statistical difference, especially when considering the state’s cost of living.
Religion by state (percentage identifying as very religious) – source data.
Red states: Iowa (43%), Missouri (44%), Kentucky (49%), Ohio (41%) and Indiana (46%) Blue states: Illinois (39%), Pennsylvania (41%), Georgia (52 %) and Michigan (41%) Note: Red states tend to be more religious than blue states.
Percentage of babies born to single mothers: source data.
Red states: Iowa (36.3%), Missouri (41.1%), Kentucky (43.1%), Ohio (43.6%) and Indiana (43.6) Blue states: Illinois (40.5%) ), Pennsylvania (40.9%), Georgia (46.3%) %), and Michigan (41.2%) Note: Few statistical differences.
Ranking of corruption (a low number is considered worse) by states: source data.
Red States: Iowa (33), Missouri (18), Kentucky (15), Ohio (7), and Indiana (22) Blue States: Illinois (3), Pennsylvania (5), Georgia (12), and Michigan (14) Note: Blue states tend to have higher corruption rates than red states.
What is interesting about this data is often the data points that are not factors. County data may need to be drilled down, although it should be understood that county data must be expanded to a state level in any case when considering state races and the presidential race in the Col Electoral law. Here’s what could be said from these state data points.
Blue states are more populated, urbanized and have a higher population density. Blue states tend to be more corrupt, less religious, and have more crime. Blue states have a higher amount of minorities. Blue states have a higher unionization of their workforce. Blue states have higher average wages, but also higher costs of living. Blue states have the party affiliation advantage in historical voting trends.
Given certain immutable demographic factors, note the factors that point to the moral issue that comes to light in understanding the characteristics of voters in blue states (ie, more corrupt, less religious, and more crime). Or maybe none of these factors make any difference, and it simply comes down to the individual candidate and the campaign they’re running.
As Republicans and conservatives begin to formulate new policy strategies and messages for the future, it will be useful to consider this data. Some of these data points would be difficult to change, others might be.
Give us your ideas in the comments section on why: a red state is red and a blue state is blue?
See more posts about the chart of the day.
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