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Why You Can’t Trust US Government Data

Figure 1. Log level data available here. You can FINALLY see what’s really going on in those houses that do honest reporting. And you can see how some problematic reporting can skew the numbers.

The purpose of this article is to show you why US government data cannot be trusted to be accurate.

I’m going to show you how you can prove CMS’ nursing home data, which is supposed to be the gold standard, is crap with just 3 examples.

Basically, the rule I use is that if you can’t independently verify the numbers you’re told are correct, you shouldn’t believe the numbers are correct.

That’s why I prefer data, such as anecdotes, where you can independently check the evidence with multiple sources.

Do you know why record-breaking public health safety data on vaccines is not publicly available? Until recently, the US government never released record-level data on anything related to public health other than deaths. But this is not helpful because it cannot be traced back to any cause, such as a vaccination.

In general, you can only see the data summaries they want you to see; you will never be able to see the “source code” so to speak.

In general, the reason you almost never see log-level data is because it would expose two things:

  1. They lie to you about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines. There are many nursing homes that show data that clearly shows that vaccines are a disaster in the nursing home after the nursing home where the weekly death rates skyrocketed right after the vaccine was released.

  2. Some of the underlying data used in their analyzes is highly unreliable and can completely skew the aggregate numbers, such as COVID deaths > COVID infections or thousands of deaths in a facility with only 50 beds.

In short, it would destroy confidence in their narrative.

But sometimes they get hurt and make the data available. A perfect example is the CMS Nursing Home Data which exposes the data we’ve all been asking for: record-level data where we can validate/invalidate data.

They created a portal to show cases and deaths from COVID-19, but also tracked all-cause mortality and deaths and made it public for everyone to see. Not at the data record level for each death, but at the weekly summaries of COVID infections, COVID deaths, and all-cause deaths at each facility.

For me, it’s a goal-rich environment. We’ve never been able to see log-level data in anything before. now we can

And how I wrote earlier, Nursing home data shows the COVID vaccine is a disaster.

Today I’m going to dive into CMS data and show you three examples of why you can’t trust the data they tell you to trust.

Data transparency is key to better health outcomes.

Unfortunately, to date, there is not one governor or legislator on the planet who believes enough in data transparency to sponsor a bill that would mandate the release of public health data at the registry level.

But there is a guy running for the US presidency named Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who believes the public deserves the right to know the truth.

If you want to see the health of America and the world improve dramatically, he is our best hope.

Now for the data that proves my point…

Download it while you still can:

Medicare Nursing Home Data Download Link (official mortality data for all US nursing homes)

All 3 examples can be found in this dataset. There were many more than 3 examples, of course.

For supplier no. 315506, from early 2021 to 3/8/21 (essentially the first two months of 2021):

In other words, there were almost 3 times more deaths from COVID than cases of COVID.

This is impossible – you can’t die of COVID if you don’t have COVID.

But the data passed all quality control checks.

See vendor #396122.

There were 131 deaths in the first 3 months of 2021. However, the number of occupied beds remained almost constant at 50 beds over the 3-month period.

So we’re supposed to believe that the facility had a close to 100% death rate per month for 3 months straight and was able to instantly replace anyone who died?

This is my favorite example. Facility #235601.

In the last 7 months of 2020, this facility had 2,584 dead in total which included 9 deaths from COVID (out of 48 cases, a 19% mortality rate from COVID).

Here’s the kicker: the average occupancy over the entire period was just 47 beds, and it remained fairly constant over the 32-week period. There are only 69 beds in the entire facility.

That is, on average, everyone who lived there died, on average, every 4.2 days, and immediately they were able to fill the empty beds every week.

This facility passed all Medicare quality control checks.

Single installations like this with such a large death toll defeat the aggregated data.

And this was not the only example of a small facility with thousands of deaths in 2020!

In this article, I showed three examples of how data that is supposed to be reliable is anything but reliable. This means it’s best to be wary of US government data where we can’t independently validate what’s being reported as true.

So for COVID, I prefer to use multiple independent anecdotes that can be 100% independently verified when trying to figure out what’s really going on.

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