Editor's Note: The attempted assassination of the former president at a political rally this past weekend is obviously on everyone's mind. One innocent person is dead, Corey Comperatore who was protecting his family, two are seriously injured and, barring a fateful turn of the head, Donald Trump might be on that list too. The American people deserve a full explanation of the security failures that allowed this to happen. We will avoid sweeping conclusions about the event and the reasons behind it as investigations continue and stick to what we do best: political and social analysis.
We hope the Republican National Convention goes well for all participants and leaders this week. With that, TLP friend Dan Cox takes a good look at some of the trends shaping the GOP coalition at the Milwaukee convention.
Of the many ways Donald Trump has reshuffled the country's political demographics, none is more surprising than the way he changed the GOP's relationship with young voters. Not all polls agree, but many reputable polling teams do to have found Trump neck and neck with Biden among young voters. But it's not simply that Trump has suddenly become more attractive or Joe Biden less popular. The way of relating to the two major political parties is undergoing a momentous change.
A growing number of polls suggest young voters are shedding their Democratic ties. The Pew Research Center just released the raw data for the National benchmark survey of public opinion 2024, a large, methodologically rigorous landmark study, which is incredibly optimistic for Republicans. The survey finds that young Americans are evenly split between parties: 47% lean or identify as Republican and 46% identify as Democrat. Historically high numbers of young people refuse to identify with either political party, with nearly half of young adults in the NPORS survey identifying as independent or “something else,” but when asked which party they lean, they split in half.
The GOP's lead among young whites is even more impressive. More than six in ten (62%) young white Americans identify as Republicans, while only 35% are Democrats. They are one of the most Republican age groups and noticeably more GOP-leaning than Americans in their 30s and 40s. A few years ago, I don't think many people would have predicted that, at least among whites, Gen Z would end up being more Republican than Millennials.
These results are inconsistent with other surveys and represent a substantial break from previous Pew NPORS studies. However, while still an outlier, it's not the only poll showing Democrats struggling to connect with young voters.
Biden is a big reason. Since the 2020 election, America's first octogenarian presidential candidate has seen his support among young voters completely collapse. A recent News from New York/ Siena The survey of registered voters found that only 23 percent of young voters had a favorable view of Biden, and an overwhelming 84 percent say he is too old to be an effective president. At the same time, Trump is viewed more positively among young voters, with 37 percent reporting a favorable opinion of him.
The GOP's opportunity with young people
Biden isn't the only reason the Democratic Party is ripping off young voters. The party has struggled to reach young people, at a time when many of this group feel most vulnerable. In less than a decade, the number of young people who identify as Democrats declined significantly. As recently as 2016, more than half of young men (51%) identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party. In 2023, fewer than four in ten (39%) young people identified as Democrats. Young women maintained a stronger allegiance to the Democratic Party, perhaps in part because of their strong dislike of Trump, but in the past two years, that strong Democratic commitment appears to have fizzled.
In my own newsletter, I recently argued that the Democratic Party was so invested in addressing the challenges of girls and young women that it has become politically difficult to address, or even acknowledge, the growing problems facing boys and men teens. Nowhere on the Democratic Party's list of 16 champion groups (a list that includes women, Latinos, LGBTQ+ people, seniors and retirees) are men mentioned. Trump and many Republicans have been more than willing to take on the mantle of defenders of men and traditional masculinity. Live up to #MeToo, Trump worried out loud about what the movement would mean for young people.
The Trump campaign clearly sees an opening with young voters. Trump's abrupt reversal of the ban on TikTok, where he has since amassed more than 7.5 million followers, has given him an effective channel for young voters. Joe Biden has less than half a million followers. The disparity has given Trump a huge advantage. An internal review of TikTok found that there was twice as much pro-Trump content on the platform as pro-Biden content.
On the policy front, Trump has worked to smooth things over party position on abortion, a key responsibility for him with young voters, especially young women. The GOP's newly released platform also removes reference to “traditional marriage,” which is defined as a union between “one man and one woman,” something young people overwhelmingly reject. The Republican platform also promises to end “crypto repression” and eliminate tip taxes, a policy that would disproportionately benefit young workers, who are more likely to work in service industry jobs.
Political candidates often struggle to connect with young voters. Democrats have long relied on the endorsements of popular actors, musicians and celebrities to bridge the cultural gap with young voters. compare this list of celebrity endorsements from Barack Obama to Mitt Romney. However, in the age of social media influencers, the cultural cache of movie stars has greatly diminished. The Donald Trump Podcast interview with Logan Paula popular YouTuber, was certainly more effective in reaching young people than Robert De Niro's impromptu press conference at the Trump trial in New York.
Historically, one of the GOP's key liabilities with young voters was that the party was filled with old people who didn't understand or care about the problems of ordinary Americans. But perceptions of political parties have changed dramatically over the past decade. In 2013, 70 percent of Americans said the Republican Party was out of touch, compared to 51 percent who said the same of the Democratic Party. Now, slightly more Americans overall say it's Democrats rather than Republicans who are disconnected (62 percent vs. 58 percent).
At this point, I am not anticipating a generational readjustment in political behavior. Biden's advanced age and his continued struggles to mount a vigorous defense of his record offer clear opportunities for Trump and the GOP candidates. But young voters largely distrust both political parties. almost four out of ten young people hold negative views of both the Democratic and Republican parties. There is also little evidence that the GOP has rehabilitated its image with young voters, instead benefiting more from widespread pessimism about the country's trajectory. More than three quarters of young voters let's say the US is going in the wrong direction, at a higher rate than any other age group.
Even a modest change in the voting behavior of young adults would be incredibly consequential. If the Republican Party remains competitive with young voters, it's hard to see any Democrat winning in November, but the political and cultural ramifications will stretch far beyond a single election.
Daniel A. Cox is the director of the Survey Center on American Life and a senior fellow for polling and public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute. He is a contributor to 538 and Insider and writes the newsletter American stories.
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