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Ten House seats expected to be eliminated in 2024

AEarly analysis of the 2024 House races predicts there will be 22 seats in the lower house as both parties try for a majority.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political analysis by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, labeled a number of seats as draws, including embattled Reps. George Santos (R-NY) and Katie Porter (D- CA).

Below are 10 of the 22 seats expected to be played in 2024.


Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA)

Porter is leaving behind his seat in California’s 47th district as he seeks to unseat Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) in the Senate. Although the district voted for President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points, Porter only won in 2022 by 3.5 percentage points, indicating the district’s status as a toss-up. Much of Porter’s victory last cycle was due to his fundraising skills, indicating an uphill battle for Democrats if they can’t find a replacement.

Rep. George Santos (R-NY)

Santos easily beat his Democratic challenger in 2022 by 7.5 percentage points, but now faces a tough challenge in 2024, following revelations that he had lied about various parts of his resume. If Santos isn’t kicked out of Congress before 2024, the district could go back to Democrats, even though Republicans just flipped the seat in 2022. However, Republicans might fare better if Santos isn’t in the Republican primary , or if you decide. resign rather than run again.

The freshman lawmaker is currently facing multiple investigations into his finances by the House Ethics Committee.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)

Slotkin, who positions himself as a centrist Democrat, beat his Republican opponent by five percentage points in 2022. However, he may be preparing for a bid for the Michigan Senate seat. Uncertainty over who can replace her should she decide to run for the upper house leaves the district labeled as a toss-up. However, if instead of running for re-election, the seat would tilt instead of a Democrat.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY)

D’Esposito, who won one of the bluest seats of any Republican, with New York’s 4th District voting for Biden in 2020. Because the 2024 House race will coincide with the presidential election, Democrats hope that the enthusiasm for Biden translates into the ticket. D’Esposito won by a relatively narrow margin, by 3.8 percentage points, meaning he has a challenge in 2024.

Representative Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)

Kaptur, 76, is currently the longest-serving woman in Congress, having first taken office in 1983. She easily beat Republican challenger JR Majewski by 13 percentage points, but that due in large part to a scandal that closed the latter’s campaign. Kaptur’s seniority could translate into voter fatigue, allowing a Republican to mount a real challenge in 2024.

Rep. Marie Perez (D-WA)

Perez won one of the tightest victories of 2022, defeating challenger Joe Kent by just 0.7 percentage points, and the results came just days later. The narrow margin of her victory in a typically more conservative area gives her the status of being one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2024.

Representative Mike Lawler (R-NY)

Lawler was one of five Republicans to win a seat in New York in a district that voted for Biden in 2020. Democrats hope that enthusiasm for Biden in 2024 will carry over to unseat Lawler, turning the district completely blue.

Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA)

Garcia won a district that had voted by double digits for Biden in 2020. However, Democrats are optimistic of unseating him in the next election. Former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides recently announced he would challenge Garcia in 2024.

Rep. David Valadao (R-CA)

Valadao is one of three Californians who won in a district that voted by double digits for Biden in 2020. Democrats hope that enthusiasm for Biden in 2024 will translate into a local blue wave that will wipe out Valadao and the other two Republicans.

Valadao defeated his Democratic challenger, Assemblyman Rudy Salas, in the 2022 race to represent California’s 22nd congressional district in what was one of the most heated and expensive House battles in the country .


Rep. Don Davis (D-NC)

Davis, who won North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District in 2022, will face a tough re-election race as the state prepares to redraw its congressional districts for the 2024 cycle, this time favoring the Republicans.

Davis’ district is one of four seats up for redistricting, making the blue district a Republican-leaning toss-up.

The other 12 House races classified as toss-ups by the crystal ball are as follows: David Schweikert (R-AZ), John Duarte (R-CA), Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Marc Molinaro (R-NY ), Kathy Manning (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC) Brandon Williams (R-NY), Greg Landsman (D-OH), Lori Michelle Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), Emilia Sykes (D-OH ), Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Susan Wild (D-PA).

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