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New NYC crime data shows crime would drop 90% without ‘diversity’

New York City, the bustling metropolis known for its cultural diversity and iconic skyline, has always been a city of contradictions. As we delve into the latest crime report for 2022, we are faced with a disturbing reality that highlights both the challenges and disparities in crime statistics.

The recently released crime report for New York City in 2022 serves as a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of criminal activity in the city. This annual report compiles data on a variety of criminal offenses, helping law enforcement agencies, policymakers and the public gain insight into crime trends and patterns.

In 2022, New York City witnessed a total of 414 homicides. A striking aspect of these tragic events is the demographic breakdown of victims, suspects and detainees. According to the data, blacks made up 63% of homicide victims, 64% of suspects and 58% of those arrested. This discrepancy raises important questions about the underlying factors that contribute to these statistics.

Hispanics were also significantly involved in homicides, accounting for 26% of victims, 31% of suspects, and 36% of arrestees. This suggests that a considerable part of the city’s population was affected by this type of crime. Examining the reasons for these numbers is crucial to developing effective crime prevention strategies.

Whites make up about 31 percent of the population, while blacks make up just over 20 percent, Asians make up 14 percent, and Hispanics make up 29 percent. When the data is analyzed based on each group’s population size and their per capita crime rates, the statistics reveal wide disparities. Blacks are a staggering 33.7 times more likely than whites to be identified as murder suspects, while Hispanics are also significantly more likely at 11.2 times and Asians are 2.2 times more likely to be implicated as suspects.

Another alarming statistic from the 2022 crime report was the number of reported robberies, which reached a staggering 20,295 cases. What particularly stands out is the demographic composition of those involved in these crimes. Although black and Hispanic individuals made up approximately 20 percent of the city’s population, they accounted for the vast majority of those arrested for theft.

In the case of rape, as well as the occurrence of grand theft nearby, it is notable that whites were quite well represented. In the context of the 1,224 reported rapes last year, blacks were only six times more likely to be identified as suspects and Hispanics four times more likely than whites.

Felony assault, which includes 26,301 reported incidents, involves the act of attacking and harming someone with or without a weapon, causing serious injury. Grand theft, which involves the theft of items valued at $1,000 or more, emerged as the most common of these crimes, with a total of 50,577 cases reported. In this context, Hispanics were only twice as likely as whites to be implicated as suspects, and interestingly, Asians were slightly less whites more likely to be identified as suspects.

Finally, we look at incidents involving firearms, specifically shootings. It refers to cases where people discharge a firearm and cause physical harm to others. These incidents occurred a total of 1,566 times last year, encompassing all gun-related homicides. So clearly there were at least 1,100 shootings in which people were injured but not killed.

Notably, these types of crimes are disproportionately associated with blacks, with Hispanics trailing behind, but still 25.5 times more likely than whites to be considered suspects. Interestingly, Asians also stand out, being nearly three times more likely than whites to be identified as suspects in these cases.

Barely half of murder cases in the United States are ever solved. The national homicide rate is at an all-time high downaccording to FBI data.

During the 1960s, more than ninety percent of homicide cases were successfully solved, leading to arrests. However, as we approached the 1990s, this percentage dropped into the 1960s. The year 2020 saw a significant increase in homicides, coinciding with the national clearance rate plummeting to roughly 50 percent, the first time it had ever hit such a low point.

Cities are evaluated on several fronts when it comes to ensuring safety and justice, including crime rates, police-community relations and the treatment of incarcerated people. However, a critical but often overlooked metric is clearance rates, which indicate the percentage of crimes that result in arrests. It is disconcerting to note that NYPD clearance rates have witnessed a significant decline. Unsolved crimes represent an absence of justice, leaving victims and their families trapped in a state of fear and disillusionment.

The seriousness of the crime increases the need for law enforcement to identify the guilty and for the courts to hold them accountable. A total of 488 homicides were reported in 2021, but only 56% of those cases resulted in arrests, down from 64% in 2020 and 71% in 2019. In 2022 , although the number of homicides decreased, the percentage of cases solved improved, reaching 64%. While this represents progress, it still results in hundreds of individuals being murdered without their perpetrators facing justice.

The Big Apple’s most recent quarterly report on clearance rates shows an increase in murder suspects, but only 43 percent for shootings and 29 percent for major crimes overall.

According to a recent report of AmRen, if New York City had the demographic makeup it had in the 1950s, where the population was about 90% white, crime would essentially disappear.

Homicides would see a staggering 90.6 percent drop, while robbery rates would drop by 85.8 percent. Incidents of rape, criminal assault and grand theft would also decrease, although to a lesser extent. Shooting cases would virtually disappear.

Causes of criminal disparities

In a recent to study carried out by Sariaslan et al. in 2021, a sibling analysis was used to examine the connection between childhood family income and incidence of mental illness, substance abuse, and violent crime-related arrests. This approach made it possible to explore potential causality, as the children involved grew up during different periods when family income levels fluctuated. These fluctuations could result in varying degrees of impact, attenuated or amplified, depending on the level of income during specific periods. Similar to the findings of the two previous studies, no causal relationship was observed between childhood family income and criminal behavior.

Another to study conducted in the United States by Chetty et al. in 2018 revealed disparities in crime rates across different socioeconomic statuses across racial groups. Using an analysis of IRS data including all children born in the United States between 1978 and 1983, Chetty et al. identified a pattern in which blacks had higher crime rates than whites in all income groups.

As the data show, when income is taken into account, the disparities in crime rates between black and white males do not correspond closely. In the case of women, although the difference is comparatively smaller, this result is not surprising considering that the majority of criminal acts involve men.

These findings mirror the results obtained by Zaw, Hamilton and Darity (2016)where they similarly identified higher crime rates among blacks compared to whites in all income groups.

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