Following Georgia’s impeachment of Donald Trump, our new national poll shows that he not only beats Biden, but would defeat the incumbent in a landslide.
McLaughlin National Poll Finds Trump Leading Biden 47% to 43% — 2 points only this month.
Even more remarkable, with our voter model for this poll we assigned 4 points more 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters.
That means going into 2024 there is an 8 point swing in Trump’s favor from the 2020 election. Biden voters are switching to Trump.
But here’s the big news.
In key battleground states, Trump leads Biden 49% to 41%.
If the election were held today, Trump would defeat Biden in a landslide.
Our poll and other national polls confirm a big swing for Trump.
Remember that Donald Trump never won the popular vote in the 2016 and 2020 national popular vote, and nearly every poll had him losing the popular vote in both elections.
But now our poll and others show that he is leading.
We believe this is the real reason Joe Biden is desperate to keep Trump off the ballot and, if he can, put him in jail.
Trump appears to be the only Republican candidate who can soundly defeat Joe Biden.
There are two fundamental trends evident in our most recent national poll that project Donald Trump to victory in 2024.
Our recent national survey was completed after the announcement of Fulton County’s indictment of President Trump and just before the Republican debate.
This national survey of 1,000 likely voters (+/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval) was completed between August 15.th and 23rd.
Despite the allegations, Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination, leading his nemesis Joe Biden.
First, Donald Trump is smartly running a campaign that focuses on defeating Joe Biden, whom he has called “the worst president in the history of the United States.”
Public opinion agrees with President Trump:
- Joe Biden’s job approval rating remains decidedly negative: 43% approve, 55% disapprove. And 72% of undecided voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing. Most undecided votes are a hidden vote for Trump.
- Under Biden, 67% of all voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only 25% say it is going in the right direction. And 83% of undecided presidential voters say he’s on the wrong track.
- A solid majority of 64% of voters say the economy is getting worse and only 32% believe it is getting better.
- A whopping 83% of voters say they have been negatively affected by inflation, with 45% struggling to make ends meet and pay for essentials.
- Only 37% of voters favor Vice President Kamala Harris. 54% are unfavorable. It remains Joe Biden’s impeachment insurance policy: “Take me out and see what you get.”
- Bidenomics is a poor brand with only 22% of voters favorable and 46% unfavorable. Maybe it’s too much like Bidinflation? It seems that Bud Light would be a more popular brand these days. Only 36% of voters say Bidenomics has been good for the economy. A solid 49% say it has been bad for the economy.
- Trump is winning on the issues that matter most to voters. The economy and inflation are top concerns among 45% of voters, and those voters prefer Trump over Biden 57% to 33%.
- Social issues like Medicare/Social Security, health care, climate and education are most important to just 27% of voters, and they vote for Biden by 60% to 31%.
- Security issues such as the border, crime and national defense are most important to the 14 percent of voters who prefer Trump over Biden 55 percent to 37 percent.
- As pundits speculate about Joe Biden’s health and actuarial results, Donald Trump’s position strengthens over Kamala Harris, leading her 50% to 40%. Democrats don’t have a winning option with her. Instead, they are doubling down on Biden’s corruption and failure.
- With Trump beating Biden, Republicans lead the generic congressional vote 48% to 42%.
The race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is no longer closed. Trump is clearly leading.
It’s still early, but Trump has pulled off an impressive turnaround since the 2020 election.
See McLaughlin’s full poll results below:
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant, and political strategist who has helped elect a United States President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read reports from John and Jim McLaughlin – More here.
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