The accusation of Hunter Biden on Thursday along with the opening of an impeachment inquiry earlier this week against his father, President Joe Biden, says the issue of corruption is front and center in the 2024 campaign. This is an important development as the campaign presidential finally begins to fold.
Just two months ago, the conventional wisdom was that Hunter Biden would receive a deal from the Justice Department that would have cleared the tax and gun charges he was facing and ended federal investigations into the firstborn. That likely meant there would be no additional charges against Hunter, allowing the story, and the bad press surrounding it, to fade before the presidential election year.
Now all that has changed.
With the breakdown of the plea deal and the appointment of US Attorney (and Trump appointee) David Weiss as special counsel, Hunter Biden has been indicted on three federal gun charges and more indictments could be on the way. To the detriment of President Biden, this may create an equivalence in the minds of voters between the alleged criminal behavior of Biden’s son and that of former President Donald Trump.
At the very least, it will ensure that one of the main issues of the 2024 campaign will be issues of corruption and ethics within the American government. Public trust in government is very low, with nearly 6 in 10 (58%) American voters feeling that our system of government is not working, according to the New York Times/Siena. election. In addition, public confidence in all three branches of the federal government is at new lows Gallup.
Hunter Biden’s legal troubles remaining in the news will also increase scrutiny of Joe Biden’s behavior as vice president. Already, House Republicans are continuing to investigate whether the elder Biden benefited from his influence as vice president, though their investigations have so far found no evidence of wrongdoing.
This week, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) ensured those allegations will remain in the public eye as he elevated the various House investigations to a formal impeachment inquiry. Although an investigation is now underway, McCarthy is unlikely to seek an impeachment vote unless he develops stronger evidence of wrongdoing by the current president.
In fact, if McCarthy is smart, he will resist a formal vote while he can, since it is a practical impossibility for Joe Biden to be removed from office. Also, any vote on impeachment would put the 18 House Republicans representing districts won by Biden in 2020 in danger of losing his re-election bids.
That said, even if President Biden is not officially impeached, he will certainly be politically damaged by his son’s indictment and possible conviction.
On top of the increasingly serious legal problems facing Joe and Hunter Biden this week, the publication of a column for Washington Post Writer David Ignatius calling on both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris not to run in 2024 suggests that mainstream Democratic elites are turning against the former president.
If a drumbeat starts from the Democratic establishment against Joe Biden’s performance and policy stance, there is much less reason to believe he will be re-elected.
Without a doubt, the Ignatius column is more than an isolated fact or article. Effectively, it gives the elites of the Democratic Party permission to begin the process of questioning Joe Biden’s candidacy that began a month or so ago when his poll numbers against Donald Trump continued to weaken despite the multiple accusations of the former president
Pillar of the democratic establishment, Ignasi articulated publicly, and in a prominent place, what many donors and leaders of the party have been saying in private; the party would be better off in 2024 without Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on the ticket.
These two unrelated events, Hunter Biden’s impeachment and David Ignatius’ column, make for a tough week for Joe Biden politically. They are a double-edged sword against the president and add to his political vulnerability, even among his own party.
Given that it remains weak ratings On the economy and voter concerns about Biden’s age and fitness for the job, calls for him not to run next year will only grow as we approach the formal start of the campaign season in January.
Douglas E. Schoen is an attorney, policy analyst, and consultant. He advised President Bill Clinton during his 1996 re-election campaign and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg during his 2020 presidential campaign, among other public figures. He is the author of numerous books, among them “Power: The 50 Truths” (2023).
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