Earlier this week, intelligence officials briefed congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight on the Wagner Group’s movements and build-up of equipment near Russia.
Both U.S. and Western intelligence officials noted signs that Prigozhin was taking steps to prepare for such a move, including stockpiling weapons and ammunition, as one intelligence official stated. Western intelligence and another person familiar with the intelligence at CNN.
A source familiar with the intelligence emphasized that the developments developed quickly, making it difficult to assess the seriousness of Prigozhin’s threat to the Russian military and where his troops might be deployed.
“It all happened very quickly,” the official said, and it was “difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops,” according to the CNN report.
However, US and NATO leaders were all hands on deck as Wagner’s rebellion began Friday night.
In the hours leading up to Wagner’s withdrawal, U.S. officials held several interagency meetings Friday night and Saturday morning to assess the potential impact, according to Politico’s sources. They tentatively agreed that the insurgency by Wagner’s mercenary group would divert the Kremlin’s attention, presenting Ukraine with a crucial opportunity to turn the tide of its faltering counteroffensive.
At the time, the Biden administration had yet to formulate a formal assessment, and officials cautioned that it was too early to draw any definitive conclusions, the report said.
Those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the magnitude of the challenge posed to Vladimir Putin in more than two decades, said they were monitoring the movements of Wagner’s forces as they advanced toward Moscow, passing through Rostov and heading north.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were briefed Saturday by Cabinet officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, on the advances made by the Wagner Group before Prigozhin’s decision. to wake up.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, held a conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart, General Valery Zaluzhnyy, on Saturday. According to the summary of the conversation, Zaluzhnyy briefed Milley on the offensive actions of his units and assured him that the operation was proceeding as planned.
Biden also discussed the situation in Russia with President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom on Saturday.
In addition, Blinken held a conversation with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba. In a tweet on Saturday, Kuleba declared: “Ukraine remains focused on achieving the goals of its counteroffensive inside its territory with the unwavering support of our American allies.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was scheduled to speak with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov later Saturday.
A US official revealed that the phone calls with European counterparts were intended to “reassure them” and emphasize the importance of maintaining a neutral stance. “No one should celebrate prematurely,” the official added.
In those talks, there was a general consensus among the United States and its European allies that Kiev now had an unprecedented opportunity to advance as a major mercenary force shifted its focus from holding Ukrainian positions to launching attacks inside Russia .
Biden’s departure for Camp David, where he would have access to resources to monitor the developing situation, was delayed until early Saturday afternoon.
Even if Putin were to quell the rebellion, it could strain the resources of the Russian military and likely eliminate the effectiveness of the Wagner Group on the front lines, where it had previously proven successful against Ukrainian forces.
“The cracks in Putin’s regime are now unmistakably visible. The Kremlin will have to forcefully suppress Prigozhin’s rebellion to protect its legitimacy,” warned Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said the military alliance was closely monitoring the situation. However, an early complication arose when Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey and a NATO ally, pledged his “full support” to Putin during a phone call on Saturday.
However, the open rebellion and the ease with which Wagner took control of the military command center in Rostov, where the Kremlin directed its war against Ukraine, exposed the vulnerability of the Russian military.
Officials warned that predicting events in the coming hours and days was a challenge, as evidenced by the deal brokered by Lukashenko. The possibilities ranged from Putin quickly putting down the insurgency to his grip on power falling as the image of his total control over Russia was greatly diminished.
Russian state media reported President Vladimir Putin’s concessions to rebel mercenary leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin in order to halt his advance on Moscow and avoid unnecessary bloodshed.
“According to Russian state media, major changes in the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense have been agreed, including changes to current Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Army Staff Valery Gerasimov to stop the march of the Wagner PMC Group to the capital of Moscow; These negotiations are also reported to have included the “security of the Wagner Group” being assured,” the OSINT advocate reported.
“These negotiations are also reported to have included a ‘stipulation’ that the majority of Wagner PMC forces will be redeployed out of Russia and Ukraine to Africa,” he added.
Thus, it seems that the rebel Prigozhin would nevertheless achieve the goals of his Russian incursion, regardless of the withdrawal.
While current US officials believe Putin will maintain his leadership, there is a quiet concern within the administration that the Russian leader could turn to catastrophic options if he finds himself cornered in a desperate situation.
No one in the White House would mourn Putin’s absence, but there is no evidence to suggest that Prigozhin, or anyone aligned with him, would be any less dangerous. Any form of unrest or coup in a country that possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal would be cause for great concern, officials warned.
“This kind of instability is dangerous, regardless of the outcome,” a US official warned.
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