The current story of the 2024 GOP presidential primary goes something like this: Former President Donald Trump is the prohibitive favorite; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had a chance but blew it, and so did everyone else in the race: former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former Carolina Gov. South Nikki Haley and the former governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie.
There are other candidates in the mix, of course, like tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, this cycle’s Andrew Yang, but the names above, including Ramaswamy’s, are the ones that have qualified for the 23 August in Milwaukee so far. the first of the 2024 GOP primaries.
Political narratives don’t count for much this far from an election, but two things seem especially true to this observer. Donald Trump is indeed the overwhelming frontrunner. Survey after survey makes this clear. And Ron DeSantis has blown it effectively.
The Tallahassee titan looked beautiful on paper: Yale, Harvard Law, lieutenant commander in the US Navy (JAG), stint in Congress, governor of the third most populous state in the union, one that grew by leaps and bounds, but his personality got in the way. DeSantis mimicked Trump’s brash populism, but without the touches of humor that make Trump palatable to about three-quarters of Republicans.
DeSantis super public war with Disney, the Sunshine State’s largest private employer, refusal to talk to mainstream reporters and ham-fisted attacks on legitimate woke targets made him look a little off-kilter, even to voters who sympathized with his aims. DeSantis’ habit of using government to punish political enemies has also hurt him with small-government conservatives. It’s hard to come back from that.
None of this would be a problem if Republicans didn’t want to win the White House, keep their majority in Congress, and take back the Senate. But they do a lot, and that’s where the uncertainty about Trump takes hold. Three-quarters of Republicans like him because Democrats hate him, but that’s not a recipe for a general election win.
With Trump as the GOP standard-bearer, Republicans lost all three legislative branches, as well as hundreds of state and local races across America. That’s hardly a confidence booster, despite a struggling and deeply unpopular President Joe Biden in the Oval Office. The myriad state and federal indictments against Trump won’t help in a general election, even though Trump acolytes insist they’re the fruit of a poisoned government tree.
Trump’s victory in the primaries in 2016 demonstrated the power of plurality in multi-candidate races, and that’s what realist Republicans are turning to. How do we narrow this field and avoid a repeat of 2016? (Read: How do we stop The Donald?)
A graceful exit from DeSantis would be a good start. DeSantis, who currently has 18% of the primary vote, seconds in the Real Clear Politics polling average, he appears to be in virtual freefall. It had double that support just a few months ago and seems unable to change direction.
By freeing up DeSantis’ portion of the non-Trump vote, other candidates, such as Tim Scott, who should have broad general election appeal, would have a chance to pick up some of the GOP voters and possibly a boost over time.
Trump supporters will tell the rest of us we’re dreaming, and they’re probably right. Trump is a political locomotive that overcomes every obstacle on the track. Even handcuffs may not stop him from moving forward.
But as it moves forward, Republican hopes for the House and Senate are receding.
This all sounds very familiar to me.
William FB O’Reilly is a Republican strategist from New York.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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