How New Hampshire could escape the Democrats – DNyuz

The Biden campaign is opening more field offices. Governor Gavin Newsom has made a visit, from California, to proclaim the president's fitness for a second term. And a recent poll has shown that President Biden is losing support.

New Hampshire's famously independent voters have reliably favored Democrats in presidential races for two decades.

But after Mr. Biden's recent nasty debate, a poll of registered voters in the state Found that former President Donald J. Trump had a slight lead. And the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, has changed his outlook this week for the presidential race in the state from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat”.

These indicators, along with the sudden appearance of Mr. Newsom at a highway rest stop near Manchester, raising a question not often asked in the state: Could New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, be on the line for Republicans?

In interviews this week, most voters said they had already made up their minds and that the debate, held last month in Atlanta, had not swayed them much. For many Biden supporters, the prospect of another Trump presidency is enough to drive them to the polls.

Carol Knight, 86, of Nashua, a former mill town of 90,000, described herself as a die-hard Biden supporter because “democracy is at stake.”

But among voters inclined to waver, Mr. Biden's vulnerability was clear. His margin for error with some voters seems small; another alarming mistake could drive them away.

Karen Crowley, 64, of Concord, the state capital, is an undecided independent who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and is now grappling with what seems like an impossible choice.

“I want someone who will make sure the country remains a democracy,” he said. “I don't want Trump in office, but I don't necessarily think Biden can do the job.”

Ms. Crowley, a retired nurse, said she needs to see Mr. Biden explain what he has done and plans to do, showing he is still up to it.

Meanwhile, his dilemma feels overwhelming. “It's huge,” he said.

Independent voters, like Ms. Crowley, make up 37 percent of registered voters in New Hampshire, outnumbering both Democrats and Republicans.

Some of these voters lean toward one party or another. But those who are truly independent — they regularly switch sides to vote for candidates from both parties — could be on the move, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. They tend to be less politically engaged, he said, and vote less often.

Mr. Biden's debate showing, Scala said, could be enough to impeach him four years after he convincingly beat Mr. Trump in New Hampshire, 53 percent to 45 percent.

In interviews, independent voters expressed anger and deep frustration at the caliber of both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Some, such as Jo-Ellen Wagner, an independent who said she is over 55, said they are considering not voting, given the “terrible options”.

Mr. Biden could also lose the support of moderate Republicans in the state, many of whom backed Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, in the Republican primary.

“Biden has now given these potential defectors a rationalization,” Scala said. “Would some of these people leave their vote for president blank?”

It was always a tight race, said Karen Hicks, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist in New Hampshire. He predicted that the angst would wear off and that voters who can't stand Trump would decide to do what they had to do.

“They're grumpy Yankees, and there's going to be teeth, but I have faith in the voters here,” he said. “Some people may fall off the edges, but there will be a solid effort to get people focused on betting here.”

It is not yet known whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, will appear on the New Hampshire ballot. The campaign of Mr. Kennedy has said he has the necessary voter signatures, which must be presented at the beginning of August.

Some voters said they are considering a third-party option.

“81 and 78? Come on, is that all we got?” said Mike Ste-Marie, 46, a contractor from Manchester, referring to the ages of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump. He called them “two clowns” and said that, out of frustration, he would write in for president on his own behalf or support a third-party candidate.

There is also greater concern that Mr. Biden's waning support could affect down-ballot races, particularly in the tightly divided state Legislature.

In the open race for governor, Kelly Ayotte, a former Republican U.S. senator, enjoys strong name recognition. But the Democratic candidates competing in the Sept. 10 primary — Joyce Craig, Cinde Warmington and Jon Kiper — are lesser known, and the winner will have just weeks to push for the general election.

Ellis Robinson, chairwoman of the Sullivan County Democrats, near the Vermont border, said she was encouraged to see 50 people turn out recently to meet with local candidates.

The county's state House delegation consists of six Democrats and seven Republicans, he said, making every race important.

“Our main goal is to help people realize that it's not just about the presidency,” said Ms. Robinson. “The further down the ballot you get, the closer you get to home, and that really matters.”

The recent survey of 1,700 voters in the state, conducted by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics in St. Anselm College, showed great displeasure with the presidential candidates of the two major parties.

But the poll also showed the collapse of a 10-point lead enjoyed by Mr Biden in december. This time, 44 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mr. Trump and 42 percent pledged to support Mr. Biden. The poll had a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

The poll's good news for Mr. Biden was a reversal: He leads among voters who dislike both candidates.

Marie Mulroy, 77, is a retired public health worker from Manchester and a committed independent voter. He said he would vote for Mr. Biden to stop Mr. Trump, though he fears that effort, at this point, is futile.

“All I wanted from the debate was to want to vote for Biden and not feel like I had to vote for him,” she said, “and now I'm angry that I have to vote for him.”

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