Former President Donald Trump overcame concerns from social conservatives about his stance on abortion to twice win the Republican presidential nomination. Now, you may have to do it again to make it a third party.
Of all the obstacles facing Trump on his way back to the White House, this seemed the least likely. In 2016, anti-abortion voters decided to take Trump at his word and ignore his pro-abortion-rights record to elect him president. In return, they got something they didn’t get from Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, or George W. Bush, a Supreme Court majority willing to overturn Roe v.
Ahead of his third presidential bid, Trump seems somewhat conflicted about his historic achievement.
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Trump said he was not to blame for the GOP’s poor performance in the midterm elections. “It was the ‘abortion issue,’ mishandled by many Republicans, especially those who strongly insisted on No exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest or the life of the mother, the which lost a large number of voters,” he argued. your social networking website.
The former president also complained that voters who “for decades pushed so hard against abortion, got their wish from the United States Supreme Court” and then “disappeared, never to be seen again.”
This is a real risk for Trump’s anti-abortion supporters. After blaming them for the red tide that wasn’t, they might just disappear. Trump has followed those comments with complaints about the disloyalty of evangelical leaders who are considering backing another horse in 2024.
Women’s Health Organization Dobbs v. Jackson should be Trump’s ace to avoid sliding with these voters. But by avoiding the blame for his role in the Republican underperformance last year, he may alienate primary voters next year.
At the same time, Trump is not wrong that Dobbs was a rallying cry for Democrats and helped reduce Republican gains. Exit polls showed that three-quarters of voters who said abortion was their most important issue voted Democratic. The GOP has a genuine problem motivating its base and appealing to swing voters at the same time. Both Trump and the reversal of Roe have only exacerbated this tension.
The practical reversal of Roe in Planned Parenthood v. The 1992 Casey was a major disappointment for opponents of legal abortion. However, it expanded the scope of legally permitted abortion restrictions almost entirely into areas where the public sided.
Parental involvement laws, late-term abortion bans, and restrictions on taxpayer funding of the procedure were passed. After Casey, several states enacted such policies. More radical bans on first-trimester abortions remained off the table.
Dobbs ended Roe. However, in doing so, it allowed states and potentially the federal government to legislate in areas where the anti-abortion position is not aligned with public opinion. More voters said in polls last year that they were “angry” about the decision (39 percent, 85 percent of whom voted Democratic) than “satisfied” (21 percent).
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre earlier this month highlighted “extreme MAGA Republican policies that would eliminate women’s ability to make their own health decisions” as she claimed that “Democrats focused on expanding access to reproductive care and reducing costs for American families.”
Trump went from saying he was “very pro-choice” on Meet the Press in 1999 to telling a conservative Christian reporter this year: “No one has ever done more for right-to-life than Donald Trump. I put three Supreme Court justices, who all voted, and they got something they’ve been fighting for 64 years, for many, many years.” But Trump risks tearing up old wounds that were long assumed to be healed on this issue.
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Trump is not a creature of the conservative movement, which has sometimes made his political calculations less predictable than other Republicans. He has enjoyed the success he has within the GOP in identifying and not clashing with the conservative factions that command the most votes.
Now, Trump may be testing his luck as he grapples with the same post-Roe challenges as the rest of the GOP.
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