2024 GOP Primary Election Tracker

Methodology

The latest national results on questions related to the 2024 Republican presidential first choice, second choice and hypothetical general election matchups reflect polls conducted May 26-28, 2023. First and second choice results reflect responses among 3,485 potential voters of the Republican primaries. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.

Potential voters in the GOP primary who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they planned to vote for were asked to choose a candidate for whom they were leaning. The results are presented between the first choice and those leaning towards a candidate.

The hypothetical general election results against President Joe Biden reflect the responses of a nationally representative sample of more than 5,000 registered voters.

Morning Consult’s reported results among both sets of voters for the questions listed above reflect data based on a three-day average. Across all time series, results among likely Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have a margin of error of unweighted by 1 percentage point.

Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of approximately 4,000 registered voters in the United States using stratified sampling based on age, gender and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted by age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status, and 2020 presidential voting history.

Morning Consult’s reported results on questions related to candidates’ favorability and buzz reflect data collected weekly or biweekly among about 800 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of 4 percentage points.

About Morning Consult

Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing the way modern leaders make smarter, faster and better decisions. The company combines its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions about what people think and how they will act. More information at morningconsult.com.

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