Wargame reveals key US weakness in potential Taiwan war

A think tank has found that Washington would not be able to supply the island with weapons in the event of a Chinese invasion.

A war-gaming modeling exercise ordered by a US congressional committee has shown that it would be impossible for Washington to resupply Taiwan with weapons and equipment after a Chinese invasion of the self-governing island.

The exercise was carried out this week by the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, with the help of the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington. “We are within the window of maximum danger for a Chinese Communist Party invasion of Taiwan, and yesterday’s war game underscored the need to take steps to deter CCP aggression and arm Taiwan to the teeth before let any crisis begin,” said US Representative Mike Gallagher. a Wisconsin Republican who chairs the committee said in a statement Thursday.

The exercise showed that US forces would suffer heavy losses if the Pentagon does not bolster its stockpile of long-range missiles and negotiate the use of more military bases in the Asia-Pacific region, Reuters reported, citing a unidentified person familiar with modeling. results The conflict would leave the world’s financial markets in “absolute tatters”.

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“The business community is not taking the threat of a Taiwan crisis seriously enough,” Gallagher said, warning that a lax attitude on the issue “abandons fiduciary duty.”

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have escalated in the past year, with Chinese President Xi Jinping vowing to reunify the mainland with its breakaway province, by force if necessary, and US President Joe Biden repeatedly hinting that Washington would intervene militarily if China invaded. Beijing severed security and climate ties with the United States last August, after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi heeded warnings from Chinese officials and went ahead with a visit to Taipei.

Earlier this year, another Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), ran 24 different war game scenarios for a US-China conflict in Taiwan. The study found that the US and Japan would emerge victorious, but would lose dozens of warships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of troops. Taiwan would be left in ruins, while China would lose hundreds of ships and aircraft, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, CSIS said.

In light of the resupply problem, Gallagher said, Washington needs to speed up deliveries of the $19 billion in US weaponry that Taiwan has ordered. He also called for more joint training exercises, the strengthening of US military installations in the region and increased missile production.

READ MORE: Taiwan’s foreign minister predicts timetable for conflict with China

“The goal, of course, is to deter China from launching the invasion,” Gallagher said in an interview with Fox News before Wednesday’s war game. “One of the obvious lessons of the failure of deterrence in Ukraine is that when it breaks down, it is very costly in terms of lives, blood and treasure. So we are conducting this war game to avoid a war.”

Gallagher added that “peace can only be achieved by force, especially since Xi Jinping seems to be preparing his country for war. I’m sure he would prefer to have conquest without war. We have to be prepared and we are not moving fast enough “.

Rep. Gallagher ahead of Wednesday night’s @committeeonccp bipartisan war game: “The goal, of course, is to deter the CCP from launching an invasion…we are conducting this war game to avoid a war.” pic.twitter.com/EHk0i51D6E

— Rep. Gallagher Press Office (@RepGallagher) April 21, 2023

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