Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538 simulations using polling, economic and demographic data showing a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump won 50 out of 100 times and Biden won 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In an update at 2 p.m., Trump's lead had grown, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.
Of the 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the races. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations.
538 states that its forecast “is based on a combination of polling and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It does not seek to 'name' a winner, but rather to give – give you an idea of ​​the probability of each candidate winning.”
As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump, in any of his three campaigns, has led a forecast of 538.
The 538 simulations also found that Trump is more likely to win the Electoral College as of Friday, while Biden is more likely to win the national popular vote. It found that Trump won the Electoral College with fewer than 350 electoral votes 38 out of 100 times, while Biden won 28 out of 100 times. It found that Biden won the national popular vote 59 out of 100 times, while Trump won 41 out of 100 times.
The simulations also found that Trump has a much higher probability of winning at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump won one of those states 80 out of 100 times, while Biden won one of those states 48 times. out of every 100 times.
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