Will Sheinbaum Take on the Cartels?

As Claudia Sheinbaum assumes the presidency of Mexico, she faces the daunting challenge of addressing the pervasive violence perpetrated by the country’s cartels. As the first female president and a close ally of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), her approach to cartel violence is under scrutiny across the nation and beyond.

A Continuation of AMLO’s Policies

Sheinbaum has made clear her intention to uphold AMLO’s controversial “hugs not bullets” policy. This strategy prioritizes addressing social issues and fostering peace rather than engaging in direct combat with drug lords. Critics, however, argue that this approach has been largely ineffective. During AMLO’s administration, homicide rates climbed sharply, with no significant reduction in the influence and operations of the cartels.

The Role of the National Guard

Building on AMLO’s establishment of the National Guard, Sheinbaum plans to develop it as a community-focused force, with an emphasis on acting as first responders. However, concerns remain about the National Guard’s record on human rights, with accusations of torture, extrajudicial killings, and sexual violence further complicating its role in securing public trust and safety.

Economic and Social Strategies

Sheinbaum intends to follow AMLO’s economic path, focusing on state-owned enterprises and social welfare programs. While these policies aim to address poverty and inequality, they have raised alarms among economists, contributing to fluctuations in the value of the peso and broader economic stability concerns.

Approach to Migration and Trafficking

In dealing with migration issues, Sheinbaum has avoided directly confronting the U.S.-Mexico border crisis or human trafficking. Instead, she has commended the substantial flow of remittances from the U.S. to Mexico, despite critiques that these are often symptomatic of labor trafficking and further strain the economic situations in both countries.

International Cooperation

Despite these challenges, Sheinbaum is expected to maintain cooperative ties with the United States, particularly in areas of trade. The complexities of such agreements, influenced by the legacy of NAFTA, continue to affect economic and social dynamics on both sides of the border.

Political and Social Divide

In a nation marked by deep political and social divisions, Sheinbaum’s presidency is viewed skeptically by many who doubt her ability to unite disparate factions. The entrenched issues of violence, corruption, and widespread impunity pose significant hurdles that her administration must navigate.

In summary, while Sheinbaum appears committed to continuing the strategies of her predecessor, the demands of confronting cartel violence and fostering national unity test the limits of these policies. Her success or failure in effectively addressing these challenges will shape both her legacy and Mexico’s future.