Preliminary Reports on July Migration
Preliminary reports indicate that Border Patrol apprehended between 57,000 and 60,000 migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border in July 2024. This figure marks the smallest monthly total since the start of the Biden administration and the fewest since September 2020. The considerable drop in migration numbers is largely attributed to coordinated efforts between the U.S. and Mexican governments to manage the flow of migrants crossing the border.
Attribution of Decrease
The decrease in migration is largely attributed to two main factors: Mexico’s crackdown on migration in transit and the Biden administration’s latest rule, implemented on June 5, which restricts access to asylum for migrants who cross into the United States between ports of entry. These combined measures have significantly impacted the number of migrants reaching the U.S.-Mexico border.
According to sources, the number of encounters at the Southwest Border has dropped by more than 50% over the past six weeks. The Border Patrol’s seven-day average has decreased to below 1,900 encounters per day, further illustrating the efficacy of the aggressive measures put in place to curb the influx of migrants.
Impact of Asylum Restrictions
The Biden administration’s June 5 rule has played a pivotal role in limiting access to the U.S. asylum system for individuals crossing the border outside designated entry points. This has led to a significant reduction in migration flows, as many would-be asylum seekers are deterred by the new restrictions. However, while this policy has achieved a decrease in illegal border crossings, it has also raised grave humanitarian concerns.
One major consequence is the high human cost, with many people seeking protection from threats being turned away and deported by U.S. border officials. Advocacy groups argue that these measures compromise the safety and rights of asylum seekers, many of whom are fleeing violence and persecution in their home countries.
The new asylum rule is currently facing legal challenges, most notably from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU). The ACLU contends that the policy is incompatible with U.S. asylum law, which obligates the country to offer refuge to individuals escaping dangers and seeking safety.
Political Implications
The observed decrease in illegal border crossings offers a temporary political respite for President Biden ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Immigration continues to be a contentious issue, and the administration’s tougher stance on border control could garner support from voters concerned with immigration management.
However, the political landscape remains complex, especially with the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald J. Trump. The dynamics of the election campaign are evolving, and the Biden administration’s measures, while effective in the short term, may face ongoing scrutiny and legal obstacles. The implications of stricter border policies will likely continue to shape the debate as we approach the critical election period.