Trump's Vice President: Ranking the Candidates from Most Likely to Least

The Republican presidential primary schedule won't officially begin until the Iowa caucuses on January 15, 2024, but former President Trump's dominant position in the polls has already sparked talk of who might join him in a candidacy in the general elections.

Trump leads his main rivals by an average of 60 percent nationally and more than 20 percent in state polls, creating a sense that the nomination is his to lose.

Some have begun to look beyond the primary schedule and toward a rematch between Trump and President Biden, with former President Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and others considering who should join Trump in the GOP vote.

Trump himself has offered fleeting information about his vision for a potential running mate. He told NBC's Kristen Welker in a September interview that he liked the concept of picking a wife, “but we're going to pick the best person.”

Below are some of the politicians considered as possible Trump running mates, ranked from most likely to least likely.

Governor of South Dakota. Christie Noem

Noem has for some time been seen as the favorite to be Trump's next running mate.

She has made it clear she would be interested in the job, and is one of the few potential picks Trump has publicly acknowledged would be on his shortlist.

“Oh, absolutely,” Noem he told Newsmax in September when asked if he would consider a spot on the ticket with Trump. “I would in a heartbeat.”

As governor of a deep red state, she has enacted major restrictions on abortion and banned transgender women from participating in school sports teams consistent with their gender identity.

She passes the loyalty test, which is key for Trump: she has already endorsed him in the 2024 race. The 52-year-old's gender and relative youth would also add balance to the ticket alongside Trump, 77 years.

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Noem does not represent a swing state, which could be a strike. And she has been advised by Corey Lewandowski, a longtime member of Trump's orbit who has at times stirred controversy.

Senator Tim Scott (RS.C.)

Trump has made it clear that he would like to attract more voters of color to his side, and picking a high-profile African-American Republican senator could help him.

Scott, 58, is well-respected in the Senate and his presidential bid featured few direct attacks on Trump. The former president, in turn, kept fire against Scott, the only black Republican in the Senate.

Scott has proven to be a strong fundraiser, worked with the Trump administration to develop opportunity zones for low-income communities, and his public discussion of his faith could ease any lingering concerns among the religious right.

But when he left of the 2024 race in November, Scott refused to endorse another candidate and appeared to close the possibility of joining the ticket as vice president.

“Being vice president has never been on my to-do list for this campaign, and it certainly isn't on my to-do list now,” Scott said.

Representative Elise Stefanik (RN.Y.)

Stefanik, 39, had long been considered a rising star in the Republican Party before becoming one of Trump's staunchest supporters in the House and rising through the ranks of House GOP leadership.

He was part of Trump's defense team, endorsed him before the launch of his 2024 campaign and has supported him amid his mounting legal battles. The congresswoman won more points with Trump and his team last month when she filed a judicial ethics complaint against the New York judge handling Trump's civil fraud trial.

Stefanik, who was elected to Congress at age 30 in 2014, would give Trump a younger running mate who could appeal to women and suburban voters. But it's unclear whether the congresswoman, who hails from upstate New York, would bring as much of an electoral advantage as other potential candidates.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas

Sanders, 41, rose to national prominence as Trump's White House press secretary, defending the then-president and sparring with outlets like CNN on an almost daily basis.

She left the administration on good terms and has since built her own political brand to become the first woman to serve as governor of Arkansas. Sanders gave the GOP's response to President Biden's State of the Union earlier this year, and endorsed Trump last month at a rally in Miami, describing him as “my old boss, my friend and everyone's favorite president.”

However, Sanders' situation in his home state could be problematic. An annual vote conducted by the University of Arkansas found that 48 percent of people in the state approve of her job as governor, the lowest rating for an Arkansas governor since her father, former Gov. Mike Huckabee ( R), polled 47% in 2003.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.)

Donalds is a fast-rising star in the House GOP who earlier this week expressed openness to the idea of ​​running alongside Trump.

“If that's something that's open to me, would I do it? Yes, I would, because I want to do everything I can to help our country get back on track, because despite our political disagreements in America, we're the best country in the world. It's not close,” Donalds told SiriusXM about whether he would accept an offer to join the ticket.

Donalds, 45, is one of the most prominent black Republicans in Congress.

He endorsed Trump's campaign in April, choosing the former president over fellow Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in what was seen as a major boost for Trump's campaign over its main rival.

Nikki Haley

Haley seems a less likely choice as Trump's vice president right now, as she has become a real contender in the presidential race.

The former US ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, Haley has been steadily rising in the polls since she launched her campaign in February.

Surely, Haley is now focused on her own career and wants to be the Republican presidential nominee, not someone's running mate.

But it's not as if strong GOP contenders for an eventual presidential nominee haven't become vice presidential contenders in the past.

As a woman of color calling for a new generation of leadership, Haley could help diversify the ticket. Some Republicans, including former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), have done so argued that Haley would be the best option to balance Trump's weaknesses in a general election.

The big question, of course, is whether Trump would ever be willing to put Haley on the ticket.

Trump has seen Haley's decision to seek the 2024 nomination after initially saying she would not challenge him as a deep show of disloyalty, hurling insults at her and calling her “bird brain.” The two also have their differences on key issues, such as US support for Ukraine.

Polls show Haley leading Biden by wider margins than Trump in hypothetical matchups in most cases, an asset that could eventually become a problem for Trump if Haley overshadows him.

mike pompeo

Pompeo served as Trump's secretary of state and CIA director during his first term, and the former Kansas congressman eventually endorsed a 2024 presidential bid.

Pompeo would bring experience in foreign policy and a relationship with some members of the Hill from his three terms in the House.

While his refusal to challenge Trump directly prevented a wider feud between the two men, Pompeo has sometimes taken veiled jabs at his former boss, particularly on the national debt and the GOP's electoral record since Trump was first elected.

Vivek Ramaswamy

A businessman who saw a brief surge in the polls this summer in part by emulating Trump's freewheeling style, Ramaswamy has effusively praised the former president at almost every point in his own 2024 campaign, prompting speculation that he is eyeing a slot on the ticket next to Trump.

Ramaswamy has described Trump as the “best president of the 21st century” and has promised to pardon Trump immediately if elected to the White House.

Trump has taken notice, praising Ramaswamy in August and suggesting he “would be very good” as a possible vice president. One of Ramaswamy's top staffers left for the Trump campaign in late November, signaling greater overlap between the two men.

Ramaswamy has no political experience, however, and his unfavorable rating has nearly doubled since the first primary debate in August, according to a FiveThirtyEight. poll average.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)

The second-term congresswoman is one of Trump's most loyal and outspoken supporters, but electing her on a presidential ticket would also be a significant risk given her ability to attract controversy.

In August, Greene said she would be “honored” to run on a ticket with Trump. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon told NBC News earlier this year he believes Greene 'sees himself on Trump's VP short list'.

Greene has repeatedly downplayed the violence of the January 6, 2021 riots at the Capitol, cast doubt on the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19, pushed false claims about the manipulation of the 2020 election, and spread theories of antisemitic conspiracy.

As a result, many do not see her as a serious vice presidential possibility, as she could turn away many of the swing and independent voters Trump would need to win in a general election.

In Greene's case, loyalty to Trump should be the winning card to be selected.