ActiVote's June 5, 2024 The presidential poll finds former President Trump leading current President Biden in a two-way matchup 3.8%. In the three-way showdown, Robert Kennedy Jr gets the votes of Biden and Trump equally, resulting in an identical lead of 3.8% for former President Trump. The surveys were in the field between May 23 i June 4 (average field date of May 29)
Trump vs. Biden
This survey was there 1671 likely voters in the presidential election and has a mean standard error of 2.4%.
In the two-way race, Trump is stronger among rural voters, while Biden wins urban voters. Biden wins younger voters, while Trump wins older voters. Trump wins men, while Biden wins women. Both are winning large majorities among their party affiliates, while Trump narrowly leads among independents.
Compared to 2020, Biden appears to be struggling with black voters (74% support) as well as Latino voters whose 46% support Trump, far more than in 2020. Although there are only small differences, Biden does better with high earners. and/or high levels of education, while Trump does better with middle and low income or education.
Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy
The survey was there 1775 likely voters in the presidential election and has a mean standard error of 2.3%.
In the three-way poll we see the same general pattern when looking at Trump and Biden: Trump wins rural voters, Biden wins urban voters, Biden wins younger voters, Trump wins older voters, and so on. The more interesting question is where are RFK's votes. originating from The table below shows for Donald Trump (DT) and Joe Biden (JB) what percentage of the vote they lost to RFK.
Notably, Trump loses more female voters to RFK than Biden, while Biden loses more male voters. Especially significant is how many young voters are considering ditching Biden for RFK.
Political spectrum
The chart below shows support for each of the candidates among voters on the left, moderate left, centrist, moderate right, and far right.
In the two-way matchup, both candidates dominate their side of the spectrum: Biden gets 95% of left-leaning voters, while Trump gets 96% of right-leaning voters. The difference is in the center: where Trump leads by 12 points, a group he lost by 10 points in 2020.
In the three-way matchup, Biden loses about 12% of his core supporters on the left, while Trump only loses about 7% of his supporters on the right. Among centrists, of the 27% that went to Kennedy, 16% came from Trump and 11% from Biden.
Thus, the “spoiler effect” created by Kennedy is a combination of a slightly higher effect on Biden's core supporters than on Trump's core supporters, while also drawing a few more centrists from Trump than from Biden, which leads to a washout of the overall result.
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