TRUMP, THE POLLS, THE RACE AND BIDEN'S TAILSPIN. On June 7, after the reality of his criminal conviction had had a week to sink in with voters, former President Donald Trump's lead over President Joe Biden narrowed to 0.3 points in RealClearPolitics average of national surveys. The trial certainly had an effect on Trump's ratings. His lead fell to 0.2 points in April amid intense media coverage leading up to the trial. The lead remained tenuously small for the next seven weeks.
The narrowing of the race gave hope to Democrats, who had seen Biden trail Trump since last September. After all, what was the purpose of the campaign for the Democratic law, if not to weaken Trump so much that Biden could prevail? Biden also hoped to restart the race at the candidates' first debate on June 27.
We all know how that went. After the president's disastrous performance, the race that had been so close began to widen, in Trump's favor. Trump's lead grew from 0.3 points to 1 point to 2 points to 3 points and now to 3.4 points in RealClearPolitics average. It's Trump's biggest lead since January and his second-biggest lead ever.
Just to give some perspective, in the 2020 race, when it was Trump vs. Biden, Biden led Trump by 8.8 points. Biden, who never beat Trump, won by 4.5 points. (Remember, the polls measured the national popular vote, not the state-by-state electoral vote.) These days, Biden, fueling hopes of a comeback, sometimes claims he was behind in the polls in 2020 and no one told him gave the opportunity to do so. to win. It's not true. Biden led all the way and won when the election came.
That's why Biden is so concerned about going into July. Undecided voters are moving toward a decision, and for now, it's not in Biden's favor.
Of course, Biden has more immediate concerns than facing Trump in November. First, he must hold on to the Democratic presidential nomination amid calls for him to withdraw. It's hard to say exactly what's going on now because it's been an up and down situation since June 27th. First came the hysteria: it must go! – followed by the calm backlash – it was just a bad night – followed by a gradual installation of a sense of doom and some calls for Biden to drop out of the race. Biden is 'stuck in a political rut' he wrote the The New York Times Reid Epstein.
But now another twist in the drama is coming. Biden appears to have strengthened his position by targeting black voters and union voters who generally seem inclined to support Biden. As Biden struggles to survive, he wrote The politician Jonathan Martin, “has the support of African-American Democrats and their union allies as their last line of defense. It's a playbook that Biden has resorted to in the past, portraying his detractors as elite white liberals out of step with the party's more diverse, working-class base. That's what drove his nomination after a series of setbacks in 2020.”
Biden supporters point out that no black lawmaker has so far called for the president to withdraw from the race. Perhaps Biden's most important black supporter, Representative James Clyburn (D-SC), has been mostly supportive, noting that the Democratic base voters he's spoken to are “leaning” in favor of Biden. Other black Democrats, such as Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), have said the Democratic nominee will definitely be Biden.
What's happening here is that Biden, facing a serious challenge from within his own party, sees a benefit in making this a racial issue. If black Democrats come to believe that calling for Biden's resignation is a white thing, and white Democrats come to believe that black voters see them as the bad guys, if that happens, then Biden will win by stoking racial divisions in his party.
Of course, none of this would happen if Biden were ahead in the polls. But the numbers tell the story. Biden, who was 8 points ahead at this point in 2020, is now 3 points behind. Many in his party fear he will lose. So when he shows terrible weakness, as he has since the debate, they freak out and talk about replacing him. Now, with his back against a wall, it appears Biden is hoping to use the divisions in his party to keep his job.
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