A tropical system is expected to develop soon and head toward Puerto Rico, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas. This occurs when forecasts indicate an unusually active hurricane season. The system, currently consisting of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands of the Eastern Caribbean, is expected to organize into a tropical storm by Tuesday morning. This storm will be called Ernesto.
Unlike his predecessor, Debby, Ernesto is not expected to make his way to the continental United States. Instead, it is expected to curve north and intensify into a hurricane over warm ocean water, which could put Bermuda at risk. Tropical storm watches have been issued for the Leeward Islands, including the British and US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Those watches were upgraded to warnings Monday, indicating that tropical storm conditions are imminent.
Tropical storms can have sustained winds of up to 73 mph, with stronger gusts, and can damage structures, down trees and down power lines. Ernesto's biggest threat is expected to be heavy rainfall, with totals of 4 to 6 inches expected in many areas, and up to 10 inches possible in parts of Puerto Rico. This could lead to flash floods and mudslides.
The storm's winds, which will begin to affect areas in its path from Tuesday, will create dangerous seas and up to 3 feet of swell for many islands in the region. This combination of rain and wind could spell trouble for Puerto Rico's vulnerable electrical infrastructure.
Ernesto is expected to begin moving north on Wednesday, away from the Caribbean and into the open Atlantic, where it will become a hurricane. Ernesto's strength will depend on ocean water temperature and the strength of upper-level winds in the region. There is a chance that Ernesto will become a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, by the end of the week.
However, Ernesto's exact path is uncertain and could change based on several factors. A subsequent turn to the north could mean the storm hits areas further west, such as Hispaniola or the southern Bahamas. Despite this uncertainty, Ernesto is expected to have far-reaching impacts, churning up seas hundreds of miles away and creating potentially dangerous currents for the US East Coast, the Bahamas and parts of the Caribbean through the beginning of the week coming
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