The Kamala conundrum: Why Democrats are stuck with her

California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, is desperate to run for president, now, not later.

After all, Newsom, for reasons I discuss in my new book, How Goes California, overcame a recovery attempt. Polls show most Democrats want a candidate other than President Joe Biden, whose poll numbers remain in the tank. More than 60 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Biden's cognitive decline is on full and public display, forcing staff to limit his public appearances and restrict interaction with the media.

So why isn't Newsom announcing? He faces four obstacles: Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.

First, Biden. He likes the job, having unsuccessfully looked for it twice before. He wanted to run again in 2016, but was discouraged by former President Barack Obama. Biden also did not want to stand in the way of what most assumed would be the coronation of the first female president. Biden thought his time had passed. But Donald Trump shocked the world, defeated Hillary Clinton and created an opening for Biden to ride again. So if he can darken a mirror, he stands for re-election.

Second, Dr. Jill. He likes the job. Michelle Obama, nearing the end of her time as first lady, told Oprah Winfrey that she wanted a “normal” life. But Dr. Jill Biden approvingly hovers over her husband like an avenger, guiding him, interfering, and doing whatever it takes to get him over.

Third, Harris. Her poll numbers look bad, and she dropped out before the first presidential primary in 2020. But she ran for San Francisco District Attorney, California Attorney General and for re-election, the US Senate and the vice president, winning every time.

She checks the boxes on the identity part as a woman who identifies as black. Let's remember after winning the 2020 Nevada caucuses, Democratic socialist Senator Bernie Sanders became the Democratic favorite. Alarmed, South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, on the eve of the South Carolina primary, endorsed Biden when most had given him up for dead. Clyburn extracted a promise: Make your first Supreme Court nominee a black woman.

Blacks are the most loyal part of the Democratic base. Black Democratic women outnumber black Democratic men and are even more loyal than black men, 20 percent of whom voted in 2020 for Trump. The first Democratic primary in 2024 is South Carolina, where 60 percent of Democratic primary voters are black. Black voters love Harris, especially black women. They see the ridiculousness of Harris' so-called rant as sexist and racist. They feel that Biden burdened her with the insulting task of finding the “root cause” of illegal immigration when the root cause of millions of illegal immigrants coming in under Biden is Biden. That's right, recent Los Angeles Times The poll found Harris' favorability rating at 39 percent, two points below Biden's. But in a recent YouGov poll, Harris had a 70 percent approval rating among black people, with the figure arguably even higher among black women.

Newsom, when it appeared that California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein might not complete her term, promised to appoint a black female replacement. He did it. And now, with a black Democratic woman poised to become the first female president of any color, Newsom knows a white man can't come in and displace Harris. If he tries, without Harris agreeing to stand on his side, black Democratic women would explode, but not to the point where they would vote Republican. Many would stay out, guaranteeing a Republican victory.

Fourth, Newsom. What prescription does the hyper-left offer Americans worried about inflation, gas prices, wage growth that can't keep up with inflation, crime, and porous borders? Did Newsom criticize Biden's reckless spending and his inflation-fueled war on oil and gas? Please. Newsom wants California to go further and ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035. Homelessness exploded in his hometown of San Francisco during his two terms as mayor. It supports DAs and soft-on-crime policies such as cashless bail. Newsom's California is a sanctuary state and expanded the number of illegal aliens eligible for taxpayer-funded health care. After Biden's disastrous and globally destabilizing withdrawal from Afghanistan, Newsom said, “I'm incredibly proud of him.”

Bottom line: If not Biden, the next beater is Harris. The die is cast.

COPYRIGHT 2023 LAURENCE A. ELDER

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