Russia's Putin urges Iran to avoid civilian casualties in a retaliatory strike against Israel

As tensions rise in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid civilian casualties in any possible retaliatory strike against Israel. This is in response to the recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The message was delivered by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu during a meeting with Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The US is currently strengthening its military presence in the Middle East in anticipation of an “imminent” attack on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah. This has raised concerns among national security professionals about the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East. A key question is whether Russia, the world's largest nuclear power and a major US adversary, would align itself with Iran in such a scenario, which could have disastrous consequences for the region and the world.

Putin's relationship with Israel and Iran is complex and driven by pragmatic considerations. Throughout his presidency, Putin has largely pursued a pro-Israel policy, significantly improving Russian-Israeli relations since taking office in 2000. He became the first Kremlin leader to visit Israel in 2005 and has since endorsed the construction of a massive Jewish museum and Tolerance Center in Moscow.

Putin likely sees the 1.2 million Russian and former Soviet expatriates living in Israel as a potential source of investment in Russia, particularly in high technology. He has also sought to influence the politics of the Jewish state, which is home to the world's largest Jewish population from the former Soviet Union.

Despite current tensions, Putin is unlikely to risk the political and personal capital he has built with Russian-Israeli Jews and the state of Israel over the past two decades. While Moscow will likely maintain pro-Iran and anti-Western rhetoric, Putin is expected to continue his pragmatic approach, seeking to maintain Iran's alliance while preserving his negotiating power with the US over Ukraine and Western economic sanctions.

The recent prisoner exchange with the United States and several European countries, despite Ukraine receiving American F-16s, is a clear example of Putin's transactional approach. It also recently withdrew arms deliveries to Houthi rebels in Yemen, likely to demonstrate to Saudi Arabia and the US that while Russia is aligned with Iran, it is not seeking a global conflict.