President Joe Biden appears to be losing support for his 2024 re-election bid among key voting blocs. Democrats tend to win by large margins, according to recent polling data.
Biden he won significant majorities among blacks, Hispanics, young voters and women last cycle, beating former President Donald Trump by double digits in nearly every group. However, national and state polls in the battleground for a hypothetical rematch between the two in 2024 indicate that Biden may be losing support among these key demographics as Trump gains ground.
In 2020, Biden won 87% of the black vote, compared to 12% for Trump, according to Edison Research exit polls.
However, recent polls suggest that Biden is on track to lose a significant portion of the support of black voters in 2024.
A GenForward poll from the University of Chicago released on Tuesday found that Biden received just 63% support among black voters compared to 17% for Trump, while 20% said they would not support either candidate. An Emerson College poll published on December 8 and an Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump by similar margins among the electorate.
Also, recent polls suggest that Biden has lost support with Hispanic voters while Trump has gained ground. Exit polls found Biden leading Trump 65 percent to 32 percent in the last cycle among the group.
However, the GenForward poll indicated that Biden has only a 6-point lead among Hispanic voters, and other polls have found even smaller margins between the two front-runners.
“What's really interesting about the polls is not that President Biden is swinging among core Democratic constituencies like younger voters and black and Hispanic voters,” said Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, in the Daily Caller News. Foundation “The fascinating part is that former President Trump is gaining some of that support. This seems attributable to a general sense that voters think they were better off when President Trump was in office.”
The lack of enthusiasm among minorities for Biden may be due to dissatisfaction with his economic policies in recent years, according to recent polls.
GenForward found that only 25% and 20% of black voters described the economy as “very” or “somewhat good.”
A CBS News poll released in early November, he found that the two crucial voting blocs do not expect their financial situation to improve with a second Biden term. Hispanic voters were more likely to believe they would be better off economically if Trump returns to the White House.
Other national and key battleground state polls also found tight margins between Biden and Trump among minority voters.
An early December NPR/PBS/Marist poll indicated that among non-white voters, Biden only has a 53% to 42% lead over Trump.
In Michigan, only 54% of minority voters said they would vote for Biden, while 38% supported Trump. seconds to a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday. The same pollster found similar margins Georgiawhere 65% of the voting bloc supported Biden compared to 28% for Trump.
At the beginning of November the New York Times poll of the six critical battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada) found that the more diverse the state, the worse it did for Biden.
McHenry pointed to a recent Wall Street Journal poll which found that 49% of voters said Trump's policies helped them, compared to just 23% who said the same of Biden's, which he believes could be attributed to those minority voters leaving the next to the president
“This is a stunning rebuke of President Biden's tenure,” McHenry said.
Biden also appears to be losing control of younger voters as the gap between the president and Trump is closing.
Among 18- to 29-year-olds, Biden had a 24-point lead over Trump in 2020 and finished six points ahead among 30- to 49-year-old voters, according to exit polls.
However, the president is currently leading Trump by just four points among 18- to 26-year-olds, and is ahead by eight points among 27- to 40-year-olds, according to the GenForward poll. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll found Biden led by just two points among those under 45, while the Emerson College poll found Trump up nearly 14 points among 30-39-year-olds .
Biden is trailing Trump among 18-49-year-olds in both Michigan and Georgia by 10 and seven points, respectively, according to CNN/SSRS polls. At Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released Dec. 5 showed similar results in the swing states of Arizona, Florida and Georgia, with Biden trailing by several points among those under 45.
McHenry believes the displacement of younger Biden voters has “accelerated” since the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack, citing a recent poll his company conducted in the battleground state of Wisconsin, which found that these individuals did not approve of the president supporting Israel's right to defend itself.
Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan poll analyst and editor-in-chief of Sabato's Crystal Ball, believes young voters' finances and their stance on the Israel-Hamas war could be factors in why Biden is losing support among the electorate
“A possible contributor to Biden's weak standing with these voters may include the economy and inflation,” Kondik said. he wrote on November 29. “Other potential contributors could be Biden's unsuccessful effort to forgive some student debt for tens of millions of Americans and, more recently, how Biden has handled the fallout from the Hamas strike on Israel in early October.”
For example, the NYT poll of the six battleground states found that of 18- to 29-year-olds who supported Biden in 2020, only 11% say the economy is “excellent” or “good.”
However, Kondik isn't convinced the poll is necessarily indicative of where those voters will end up in 2024, he told the DCNF.
“I think there are good reasons to think that Biden's problems with young people and non-white voters are overblown, at least in the sense that I doubt the GOP nominee will ultimately come close to winning these key subgroups,” Kondik said . “That said, any slippage is significant given the narrow margins that decide US presidential elections.”
Recent polls also suggest Biden is losing some support among female voters, who according to exit polls supported the president 15 points more than they did with Trump in 2020.
The president had a 7-point lead over Trump among women in the GenForward poll, and other polls find Biden up by two to five points.
By contrast, Biden outspent Trump by several points among the female electorate in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona, according to the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll.
Biden may be losing support among women because of the increase in inflation seen under his presidency, as a plurality of voters said it was their top issue before 2024 in the GenForward poll.
“All these polls point to Democrats nominating someone they're not excited about and who might not show up to support in the fall. With so many Democrats talking about Trump as an existential threat to democracy, it's hard to believe that “they're going to nominate someone who looks like a lock to lose,” McHenry said.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for a 2024 national democratic i republican The primary, based on the most recent poll, shows Biden and Trump leading their respective camps with 68% and 60% support, respectively. However, Biden trails Trump by 2.3 points in the RCP average for a face-to-face confrontation.
Neither the Biden nor Trump campaigns responded to DCNF's requests for comment.
All republished articles must include our logo, the name of our reporter and their affiliation with DCNF. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us [email protected].
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