North Korea's strange behavior suggests plans for global war, experts warn

• North Korea's recent behavior suggests it is seriously planning to go to war with US allies in the Asia-Pacific region, foreign policy and defense experts say.
• North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un once hoped to normalize relations with the US and the West, but now believes he has failed and sees no other option than a massive military operation, wrote Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker.
• “The evidence of the past year raises the real possibility that the situation has reached the point where we must seriously consider the worst-case scenario,” Carlin and Hecker wrote for 38 North.

North Korea's recent behavior has raised concerns that the country is preparing to go to war, foreign policy and defense experts wrote in an analysis by 38 North.

Looks like North Korea done an underwater nuclear weapons test on Friday, which was formally days later leaving its decades-long goal of reunification with South Korea and release a ballistic missile off the coast of its southern neighbor, according to Reuters. While North Korea's usual aggressive language toward the US and the West is often seen as frivolous, its recent actions suggest it may be abandoning diplomatic goals in favor of a massive military operation. seconds to foreign policy experts Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker. (RELATED: North Korea Says Kim Jong Un Saw US Military Bases After Successful Spy Satellite Launch)

North Korea conducted a test of its underwater nuclear drone system, which is known as the “Haeil-5-23”.

The test was conducted in response to the joint maritime exercise between South Korea, the United States and Japan.

(photo of April 2023 from Haeil-5-23) pic.twitter.com/Tt3xaEqyIO

— Global: Military-Info (@Global_Mil_Info) January 19, 2024

Carlin has spent five decades analyzing North Korea for the CIA and the State Department, and Hecker is a nuclear expert who was given access to the country's nuclear program on several occasions. seconds in the New York Times.

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950. This may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like your grandfather in 1950, [North Korean Leader] Kim Jong-Un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” Carlin and Hecker wrote for 38 North last week. “We don't know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings”.

North Korea had spent decades trying to normalize diplomatic relations with the United States and the West with little success, and this failed effort was most clearly seen after the 2019 US-North Korea celebration. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, according to Carlin and Hecker. Kim and former President Donald Trump had met to discuss North Korea's denuclearization plans, but the meeting ended abruptly without either party reaching an agreement.

“When it failed, it was a traumatic loss of face for Kim. His last letter to President Trump in August 2019 reflects how much Kim felt he had risked and lost,” Carlin and Hecker wrote. “This was not a tactical adjustment, not just a pout on Kim's part, but a fundamentally new approach, the first in over thirty years.”

North Korea began to turn to China and Russia alliance and began massive expansions of its military and nuclear capabilitiesas well as numerous military personnel demonstrations in retaliation for joint US and allied exercises in the Indo-Pacific region.

❗⚔️ – North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un spoke on January 15 at the Supreme People's Assembly at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang.

In his speech to the State Council, North Korea's official parliament, Kim said the constitution should be changed to educate North… pic.twitter.com/390oQWLIVA

— The Informant (@theinformantofc) January 18, 2024

The US and the West believe that the collective military deterrence will prevent North Korea from starting a war or launching a military operation. But deterrence may fail if North Korea believes it has exhausted all other options and feels backed into a corner, and the country's stepped-up military actions and unrestricted use of the language of war in 2023 make conflict a possibility is even bigger now, according to Carlin and Hecker.

“The evidence of the past year raises the real possibility that the situation has reached the point where we must seriously consider the worst-case scenario,” Carlin and Hecker wrote for 38 North. “This may sound crazy, but history suggests that those who have convinced themselves that there are no good options left will find that even the most dangerous game is worth it.”

“If, as we suspect, Kim has become convinced that after decades of trying, there is no way to engage the United States, his recent words and actions point toward the prospect of a military solution using [North Korea’s nuclear] arsenal,” Carlin and Hecker wrote.

North Korea is estimated to possess between 40 and 50 nuclear weapons – although the number is disputed – and aims to add between 100 and 300 more to its arsenal. seconds at Bloomberg. North Korea's latest nuclear test on Friday, a detonation of an underwater nuclear drone in the East Sea, was in retaliation for joint military exercises between the United States, Japan and South Korea this week. seconds on state media KCNA.

“We don't want war, but we also have no intention of avoiding it,” Kim said on Monday. seconds it is KCNA.

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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