The Democratic Party is united, for now. Fear and hatred of Donald Trump keeps the various Democratic factions in a precarious peace. But labor vs. the environment, the Jewish vote vs. the Muslim vote, and center-left vs. hardline progressivism cannot remain on the sidelines forever. The fiercest battle may be the looming civil war between Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom for the leadership of the party once President Biden leaves the stage.
And it won’t be pretty.
When Biden named Harris as his running mate, he conferred on her the status of heir apparent. The choice made sense. VP candidates are mostly about bridging party divisions or making up for the candidate’s weaknesses. As an old white Catholic man, Biden running with a minority woman checked some important identity boxes. And in 2020, with a campaign hampered by covid restrictions, Harris did well. The “no Trump” campaign worked.
However, given the chance to establish herself as the next Democratic hopeful, Harris has proven herself quite poorly. Something about her is not quite right. His speeches are mediocre, with poorly thought out advertising posts. Her discomfort with voters is positively Hillary Clinton. After spending his life in the progressive hothouse of California, Harris has shown little ability to generate appeal in the other 49 more centrist states. Given the nasty illegal immigration portfolio early in the administration, he did not distinguish himself. Whether he has any real political responsibility today is not clear.
But what should bother Harris the most, and speaks to how badly he must be viewed in the corridors of Democratic power, is the lack of interest in replacing Biden on the ticket. Joe Biden’s numbers are bad, really bad. His approval rating has been underwater for the past two years. He’s running behind Trump in multiple polls, despite Trump’s myriad problems. Double minority woman Harris replacing Biden should be the talk of the town. But it isn’t.
His poll tells the story: while Biden is an abysmal negative of 14 points RealClearPolitics Average approval rating, Harris is worse at 17.6 negative, worse than Trump (16.6 negative). In YouGov survey, Harris is 13 points below approval (Biden is down 10 points) with just 40% approval to Biden’s 42%. He has just a 3-point approval lead among black voters, but trails Hispanics by 8 points. Independents approve with only 26%, against Biden with 31%.
Harris should take solace in the fact that there is no one on the DC political scene who is a real threat. The most popular Democrat, Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), is even older than Biden. The septuagenarian Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is getting there. Pete Buttigieg’s (D-Ind.) tenure at Transportation has been miserable. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Cory Booker (DN.J.) are nowhere to be found.
Enter Gavin Newsom
In the run-up to the 2022 midterms, a swathe of Democrats began warily sifting through what they thought might be the carcass of the Biden administration, none more prominent than Newsom. After the pathetic performance of the Republicans, the Biden team asserted itself, and all the intruders went underground. Except Newsom.
Although Newsom fell in line by endorsing Biden, he has stepped up his campaign to be the Democrats’ “next big thing.” His media appearances are non-stop and his PR team is working overtime. A foreign policy trip to China to meet Xi Jinping, several progressive policy initiatives passed by a flexible legislature, all play into Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Republican playbook in Florida. Newsom will debate DeSantis in late November in a putative 2028 dry run.
All of this should leave Team Harris fuming. Harris is stuck in Washington, unable to do anything without the approval of the White House, a White House that is gave Buttigieg a (spoken) test. in 2022. Like all vice presidents, she is tied to all of the president’s decisions and problems without the ability to do anything about them. From the outside there does not appear to be any substantial working relationship, unlike most previous administrations.
Harris has to ask himself: How can he be left out in today’s Democratic Party? She ticks so many identity boxes. He hasn’t broken with Biden and has mostly been a loyal soldier. However, it is likely to face the white male descendant of a prominent San Francisco family who is getting a free ride from the progressive media.
Even more irritating is that Newsom’s poll isn’t that great. The recent Fox News poll has Harris and Newsom doing more or less the same thing against Trump. In one August YouGov benchmark, Newsom’s approval rating is negative by 13 points, while Harris’s approval rating is only negative by 12 points. Harris was net positive with Hispanic voters, while Newsom was net negative. Harris polled much better with black voters.
To be fair, Newsom is much less well-known than Harris with 35% having no opinion, compared to just 8% for Harris. But given where he’s starting, it’s not that hard to argue that the more voters get to know him, the worse he’ll do.
Harris can’t get out
For Democrats disgusted by the prospect of Harris as a future nominee, there really is no way out. Absent a landslide defeat for a 2024 Biden-Harris ticket, Kamala Harris will have to be considered. There is no engagement work for her. Anything other than a presidential candidate would be a humiliating degradation. Being vice president and stepping aside for a replacement would be intolerable, especially for the first woman and the first minority, and particularly for a white man.
Once Biden’s time is up, Harris will be at the plate. There is no insider lobbying or power play tricks that will dislodge her. If Newsom and the D.C. forces want to oust Harris, they will have to fight for the next four years. And that will be ugly.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public affairs and regulatory consulting firm. Naughton is a former political campaign consultant from Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.
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