Democratic candidates for the United States Senate surpass Biden
New Emerson College/The Hill state polls find former President Donald Trump with a slight lead over President Joe Biden in Arizona (47% to 43%), Georgia (45% to 41%), Wisconsin (47 % to 44%) Nevada (46% to 43%), Pennsylvania (47% to 45%) and Michigan (46% to 45%), while Biden is split with Trump in Minnesota (45% to 45%).
“In our first poll of several key states since Trump's conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden holding very steady since November,” Spencer said Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Remarkably, the results are within the poll's margin of error.”
“Independent voters are breaking Trump in all seven states; however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump's support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump's support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, 49% to 41%.Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, from 42% to 36%, and Nevada, by five points, from 37% to 32%.
While Biden trails Trump, the Democratic Senate candidate leads the Republican candidate in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democratic Senate candidates beat Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota and seven in Nevada.
HE: Ruben Gallego (D) 45%, Kari Lake (R) 41%, 14% undecided
MN: Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%, Royce White (R) 37%, 11% undecided
ME: Elissa Slotkin (D) 43%, Mike Rogers (R) 39%, 18% undecided
NV: Jacky Rosen (D) 50%, Sam Brown (R) 38%, 13% undecided
PO: Bob Casey (D) 47%, David McCormick (R) 41%, 12% undecided
WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) 46%, Eric Hovde (R) 44%, 10% undecided
Biden State Endorsement
- AZ: 36% approve, 54% disapprove, 10% neutral
- GA: 35% approve, 54% disapprove, 11% neutral
- MI: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 10% neutral
- MN: 38% approve, 51% disapprove, 11% neutral
- NV: 38% approve, 54% disapprove, 9% neutral
- PA: 39% approve, 53% disapprove, 8% neutral
Government Status Approval:
- AZ: Katie Hobbs (D) 36% approve, 43% disapprove, 22% neutral
- GA: Brian Kemp (R) 49% approve, 28% disapprove, 23% neutral
- MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% neutral
- MN: Tim Walz (D) 45% approve, 42% disapprove, 13% neutral
- NV: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 30% disapprove, 33% neutral
- PA: Josh Shapiro (D) 49% approve, 29% disapprove, 22% neutral
State affairs
Voters in Arizona and Nevada were asked whether they would vote “yes” or “no” on a potential ballot measure to establish the constitutional right to abortion in their state. In Arizona, 56% would vote “yes,” 26% would vote “no,” and 18% were still unsure. In Nevada, 58% would vote “yes,” 20% would vote “no,” and 21% were still unsure.
- Arizona women would vote “yes” by 61% to 23%; men support the measure between 50% and 29%.
- Nevada women support the measure 52% to 17%; men support 54% to 25%.
On a ballot measure in Arizona that would allow state and local police to arrest noncitizens who cross the border illegally and allow state judges to order deportations, 55 percent would vote “yes,” 29 percent would vote “no.” ” and 16% are not sure. .
The top issue for each state remains the economy: 27% in Arizona cite it as their top issue, 45% in Georgia, 41% in Michigan, 34% in Minnesota, 35% in Nevada, 44% in Pennsylvania and 42% in Wisconsin. Immigration closely follows the economy as Arizona's top concern, at 26%.
Perceived Impact of Trump's Conviction and Hunter Biden's Conviction
Voters were asked if Donald Trump's 34-felony criminal conviction affects their vote this November or if it has no impact at all. A plurality in every state says it has no impact on their vote.
Voters were asked if Hunter Biden's three-felony criminal conviction affects their vote for Biden this November, or if it has no impact. A majority of voters in each state said it has no impact on their vote.
Methodology
The sample for each state included n=1,000 registered voters. The data were weighted by statewide voter parameters such as gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and participation data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents' mobile phones via MMS-to-web and landlines (except for MN) using Interactive Voice Response with Respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between June 13 and 18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry higher credibility intervals as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the range of survey scores and know that with a 95% confidence interval a survey will fall outside the score range 1 in 20 times.
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