A plurality of voters believe that Trump should be sentenced to prison.
A new Emerson College Polling national survey of American voters finds that 46 percent of voters support former President Donald Trump and 45 percent support President Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Nine percent are undecided . From last month, Trump's support has remained the same, while Biden's support has increased by one point. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they're leaning toward, the race is evenly split; 50% support Biden and 50% support Trump.
Forty percent of voters say Trump's 34-felony criminal conviction has no impact on their vote this November: 33 percent say it makes them less likely to support the former president this November, and 27 percent more .
“Trump's support in our polls remained the same before and after his conviction,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51 percent) and a majority of Republicans (55 percent) say it makes them more likely to support Trump. A plurality of independents say it does not no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.”
- 58% of those who are undecided say the conviction does not affect their vote; 36% less likely, 6% more likely.
“Suburban voters split Trump over Biden, 48% to 44%, with a gender split: suburban men split for Trump 57% to 35% while suburban women split by Biden 53 percent to 38 percent,” Kimball said. “Biden leads Trump among independent voters, 43% to 41%, with 17% undecided”.
Regarding Trump's sentencing in July, a plurality of voters (40%) believe Trump should receive prison time for his criminal conviction, 25% believe he should pay a fine, and 15% believe that he should receive parole. Twenty percent are unsure.
“Opinion on Trump's conviction varies by party: 67% of Democrats think Trump should serve prison time, while 46% of Republicans think he should pay a fine; 42% of independents think he should serve jail time, 22% a fine and 14% probation,” Kimball said.
A majority of voters (64%) say the Hunter Biden trial has no impact on their vote in 2024, 12% say it makes them more likely to support Joe Biden, and 24% say it makes them less likely likely to vote for Biden. Voters were also asked one of the jury selection questions, whether they believe Hunter Biden is being prosecuted because his father is president of the United States: 49% think he isn't, 27% think he is, and 24% are not sure.
With third-party candidates included in the electoral test, Trump's support dropped two points, from 46% to 44%, and Biden's seven points, from 45% to 38%. Six percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Nine percent are undecided.
President Biden has a 37% job approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating.
A majority of voters, 55 percent, disapprove of Biden's handling of the country's immigration policy, while a quarter of voters (25 percent) approve. On Biden's recent executive order barring migrants from seeking asylum at the border once the average number of daily encounters reaches 2,500, 38% approve, 39% disapprove and 23% are not for sure.
The economy remains the most important issue for voters with 42%, an increase of four points over the Emerson May National Survey. Immigration is the second most important issue for voters at 15%, followed by threats to democracy at 12%, housing affordability at 7%, crime at 6%, access to abortion and health care with 5%, and education with 4%.
Methodology
Emerson College Polling's national survey was conducted June 4-5, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to the margin of error (MOE) of a poll , of +/- 3 percentage points. The datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region according to the 2024 registration model. The participation model is based on US Census parameters and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry higher credibility intervals as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the range of survey scores, and with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the score range 1 in 20 times.
Data were collected by contacting landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle) and an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was provided in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics and crosstabs can be found in Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
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