JD Vance and the Emerging Counter-Elite

Former President Donald Trump's selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate has generated a lot of commentary. The mainstream media has sought to frame Vance as a post-liberal “threat to democracy,” while Trump supporters have hailed him as a bridge to a new generation.

But there is a deeper story here. The selection of Vance is not a tactic to secure a certain demographic or region: white men are Trump's base; Ohio is a safe red state, but an effort to cultivate an emerging counter-elite that could make the second Trump administration substantially more effective than the first.

This story is integrated into JD Vance's biographical arc. He was the all-American boy who rose from humble beginnings to make his way in the world: the Marines; Yale Law; venture capital; a best selling book. He learned the language of prestigious institutions, cultivated powerful patrons, and quickly climbed the ladder in academia, finance, and business. He had succeeded.

Then their story takes a turn. Having entered the ranks of America's elite, Vance became disillusioned and disenchanted with her, correctly identifying her as a force of hypocrisy and corruption. He defected, first by breaking away from respectable Beltway conservatism, then by embracing Donald Trump.

Some have criticized this as a cynical move, but my feeling is that it is the opposite. A cynic would have gone on to build an elite resume; Vance sacrificed his respectability within a certain stratum, took considerable risk in moving toward Trump, and, in my view, was genuinely convinced that the establishment, both left and right, was exhausted and he had to object.

Now, not only has Vance been tapped as a vice presidential candidate; more significantly, it has paved the way for a new emerging conservative counter-elite.

The political balance is beginning to shift. A important cohort of power brokers in Silicon Valley and Wall Street have publicly moved toward Trump in this election cycle. Some of the names are familiar: Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, David Sacks, Bill Ackman. But hundreds of other influential figures are rallying behind the scenes to support Trump's campaign. Even some of Trump's former adversaries, such as Mark Zuckerberg, have done so expressed cautious admiration for the former president.

Vance can now place himself at the center of this counter-elite. He's been in the boardrooms, made the pitches, and built the relationships. He speaks his language. They can do business together.

This could represent a sea change. During the first Trump administration, especially after the death of George Floyd, institutional elites could not express admiration for Trump or devote public support to him without paying a significant political price. Now the market has changed, with a dissident elite moving along a path similar to Vance's.

Signals in these institutions always flow from top to bottom. When the All in podcast members organize a fundraiser for Trump, they give permission to others in Silicon Valley to do the same. When Bill Ackman endorses Trump without negative repercussions, he gives others on Wall Street permission to speak their minds.

If the Trump-Vance ticket wins in November, that counter-elite support could pay significant dividends for Trump's agenda.

In his first administration, Trump led with charismatic authority, relying on his intuitions and using the force of his personality to bend policy from the White House. There were successes but also limitations. Trump suffered considerable staff turnover, often lacking the institutional buy-in that would allow him to effectively implement his agenda. This is not a problem facing Democrats; its institutional strength is immense. For a Republican president, however, a supportive counter-elite has become an essential precondition for success.

This is where Vance can help with Trump's agenda. He can serve as a translator, turning Trump's charismatic vision into a rational-legalist formula. And he can lead the emerging right-wing counter-elite, so that Trump's policies, which enjoy a significant base of support among the working and middle classes, can gain more traction within elite institutions.

The irony must be emphasized. Trump's childhood was golden, while Vance's was troubled. And yet Trump has a magnetic attachment to the masses, think of his archetypal Rust Belt voter, while Vance appeals to a sector of the elite. For this reason, Trump's choice of Vance makes sense. He saw not only someone who could help advance the agenda, but also a younger heir who could lead him into the future.

In this way, it is a more ambitious gesture than typical VP elections by either party, which are usually motivated by the need for “balance” on a ticket. If Trump wins in November, so will Vance is capable of form a durable counter-elite, Trump's selection of him could turn out to be one of the most consequential vice presidential picks in modern history.

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