The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
“You don’t play your hand, you play the hand of the man across the table.” —-— James Bond, Casino Royale
“You don’t go where the puck is. You go where it goes.” —— Wayne Gretzky
How could he Israeli intelligence system was he so wrong? Its legendary intelligence agencies, such as Mossad and Aman, were held in the highest regard by the world’s military establishments. They were known for the magic of their espionage networks, their technical acumen and their ability to see the Arab world around the corner.
So how could such a huge blind spot have developed within walking distance of Mossad headquarters, right in their backyard? Could it be that they had started to believe their own advertising? Were they suffering from some kind of victory disease that bred self-congratulation and overconfidence? They were distracted by the riots in the Bank of the West? Did Hamas’ long period of inactivity lead them to relaxed complacency as it was probably intended to do? Does Mao Zedong’s observation that “an arrogant opponent is easy to defeat” apply even to the battle-hardened and intelligent Israelis?
The networks, agents, systems and overall program that make up the Israeli intelligence service worked well for the challenges they faced five, three, even two years ago. But early evidence seems to suggest that the enemy had changed dramatically in the past two years and Israel failed to adapt to the new threat that was being developed in the deepest secrecy. If this is true, how had the security environment changed and what exactly was the critical difference?
A MOST DANGEROUS ENEMY
The Trump administration, while not perfect, made the shrewd and well-informed decision to impose severe economic sanctions on the Iranian economy. This was done because the fanatic regime is a radical fire of state-sponsored terrorism that is affecting the Middle East.
As a result of the US government “maximum pressure campaignIran’s “gross official reserves” fell from 122.5 billion in 2018 to an incredibly low 4 billion in 2020.
Iranian officials stated that the sanctions had cost the country two hundred billion dollars in lost revenue. (90 percent of its oil revenue had been lost.) Millions of Iranians were protesting in the streets because of economic hardship. The sanctions were crippling the economy and threatening to destabilize the country to the point of possible regime change.
This, of course, was not to be. As demonstrated in Hong Kong, China, Russia, and Iran itself, brutally psychopathic regimes are able to use their secret police and undercover agents to silence and suppress opposition parties with great effectiveness. But the move at least served to distract Iranian leaders from adventurism beyond their borders.
That all changed under the Biden administration. Liberal Democrats in the White House lifted sanctions imposed by Trump and allowed Tehran to sell its oil on the world market. This created a huge flow of cash and brought the Iranians back to their pre-sanction days with ample financial reserves of over one hundred billion dollars. So the regime went from being humiliated and starved of money to swimming in a wave of great wealth. They transformed from a crippled enemy to an aggressive and dangerous antagonist. Critics called it silly appeasement.
Further aggravating the situation were the negotiations for the normalization of relations that had begun between Mohammad Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Unthinkable even a few years ago, this new communication between old enemies promised to be an epiphany for permanent peace in the Middle East. However, it was also intended to encircle and neutralize Iran’s aggressive regime.
It was at this point that Israel’s leadership should have asked itself a critical question: What would the radicals in Iran do with their newly acquired cash reserves? With a history of inciting terrorism in the region and now being backed into a corner by Saudi Arabia, what would be their next move?
They might also have wondered what North Korea and China would do. There is evidence that Chinese technology given to Hamas was used to defeat Israel’s electronic surveillance system. The answer to these questions can be problematic. But the answer would certainly not be that they will do nothing.
John W. Hall at the University of Wisconsin makes the observation that surprise attacks are rarely complete surprises. “In retrospect, it often emerges that indicators of an attack were present but were overlooked or not placed in the proper context.”
Egypt’s president claims to have notified the Netanyahu administration three days before the attack that something big was coming. He and his staff were surprised by the lack of response. Israel denies receiving any such notification.
TWO UNNECESSARY WARS?
Ultimately, a reasonable and persuasive argument can be made that the war in Ukraine and the war with Israel could have been avoided if Donald Trump were still President of the United States. A summary of the key points of each conflict is as follows:
- The war in Ukraine. There was little or no aggression from Putin when Donald Trump was in the White House. Trump told Putin that if he invaded Ukraine, the US would bomb Moscow. Putin got the message. But the Russians saw weakness and opportunity in the Biden emergency in Afghanistan. Therefore, with high expectations of success the invasion of Ukraine was launched.
- Israel’s War 2023. The Biden Administration’s Appeasement Program of Allowing Billions of Petro-Dollars to Flow to Iran’s Radical Theocracy Was Like Pouring Gasoline (or More Specifically, Oil) on a Fire burning What could go wrong? It was a reckless and short-sighted mistake that the previous administration would never have made.
The final point to make is this: the world would be a much better place if the United States had been led by a wise and practical leader instead of a foolish and corrupt appeaser. Here is a lesson for all the nations of the world to learn and remember carefully.
Jared Knottauthor of Little Mistakes/Big Disasters: Thirty-nine Little Mistakes That Changed the World Forever. Knott was a decorated combat infantry officer in Vietnam in the First Air Cavalry Division.
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