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How AI will replace humans like the Wizard of Oz and save the economy

Comments by Brian Shilhavy
Editor, Health Impact News

Whenever I read about how AI will one day replace humans, I’m often reminded of this scene from the 1939 movie “The Wizard of Oz.”

Crystal Balls, Fortune Tellers and AI, Oh!

for Charles Hugh Smith
Of Two Minds

As long as we mint millions from an endless bull market, we will always stay one step ahead of the debt monster. Ouch! .

Of the many amazing advances in the current age (AI!), none is more remarkable than the proliferation of soothsayers who look into crystal balls to predict the most important trend in the universe: a bull or bear stock market. The computing power and wealth generated to conjure up charts, statistics and prognoses is amazing in itself, but the proliferation of crystal balls and fortune tellers is even more amazing.

After sifting through hundreds of charts, statistics and predictions on the most arcane correlations and deepest data (AI!) I have come up with the satori soothsayer: the secret to ensuring an endless bull market in which wealth will accumulate monumental for all those entities (software and wetware alike, AI!) who buy every little download and continually revoke their zero-expiry-day call options is this:

Say “AI” 300 times with fervent enthusiasm, then click your heels three times. Then you’ll be transported to a magical paradise where stocks only drop for a few moments to allow dive shoppers the immense satisfaction of buying more stock at a discount.

Did I forget to say AI? I’m on number 199 and trying not to lose count. Ouch!

Leaving aside the thousands, or perhaps millions, of charts, statistics and forecasts, let’s think of just one: TCMDO, Debt Securities and Loans, courtesy of the Federal Reserve System.

WOW, 200, WOW, 201–WOW! The first thing we notice is that the total debt has been following a parabolic curve since that moment of discomfort (recession) in 1981-82, increasing 15.5 times since the first quarter of 1983, 40 years ago, from 6 trillion dollars to $94 trillion.

Gross domestic product (GDP), roughly a measure of the real economy, rose from $3.5 trillion in 1983 to $26.5 trillion in 2023, a 7.5-fold increase considerably less spectacular than debt.

This chart raises two questions:

1. How long will it take to add the next $40 trillion in debt?

2. How exactly will AI change the trajectory of debt, or the eventual banquet of consequences of parabolic increases in debt?

One interesting thing that is not communicated in the chart is that Americans have not experienced a real recession in 40 years. A real recession lasts a long time and reduces debt through a rising tide of bankruptcies, defaults, and write-offs. Thanks to the hocus-pocus of the Federal Reserve, no recession since 1982 has lasted more than a few short months or been more than a shallow dip.

Only people 60 and older have experience as working adults of a real recession. For all the younger ones, we might as well be talking about the Panic of 1873 or even that point of trouble in Rome around 14 AD.

Despite sifting through hundreds of charts, statistics and predictions issued by soothsayers gazing into digital crystal balls (AIs!), none reflected the possibility that America was overdue for a real recession that ended up $40 trillion in debt rather than another bull market run. this added another $40 trillion in debt.

No matter, as long as we mint millions from an endless bull market, we’ll always be one step ahead of the debt monster. Ouch! Crystal Balls, Fortune Tellers and AI, Oh My…AI, 202, AI, 203…

Read the full article at Of Two Minds.


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Posted on May 2, 2023

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