Historically blue states may be turning purple

Several key blue states that Democrats have won comfortably in past presidential election cycles are becoming competitive for Republicans because of President Joe Biden's handling of the economy and the southern border, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation .

A Democrat has consistently won the presidential vote virginia i New Mexico since 2008, while New York i Minnesota they have delivered their electoral votes to Democrats every year since 1988 and 1976, respectively. Despite the Democrats' control of these states, recent polls indicate that former President Donald Trump has been closing the gap with Biden and turning these blue states purple, likely due to the president's economic and immigration policies that have had consequences devastating for average Americans, he reported. experts who spoke to the DCNF.

“Looking at what's happened, especially over the last few weeks, but certainly over the last couple of months, we've seen swing states move more reliably toward former President Trump, and we've seen states of reach like Virginia are at the top of the table and possibly become swing states,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, told DCNF.

Biden he won Virginia in 2020 by more than 10% of the vote, and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton he won the State in 2016 by 4.9%. A poll conducted in May by Roanoke College found Biden and Trump tied up in a head-to-head matchup at 42% each, while another The poll released in early June by Fox News also showed Trump and Biden tied.

“It's taking a quarter of the black vote and half of the hispanic vote,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told DCNF. “It's improved among suburban women and women in general. So some key pillars of the Democratic coalition are now in the Trump camp, and they're seeing it in states where there are working-class, middle-class voters.”

New Mexico has also consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates in recent years, including Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 10.8% and Clinton winning in 2016 8.3%.

Trump is now just one point behind Biden in New Mexico, seconds to internal findings released in June by the national political consultancy 1892. Despite this apparently narrowing gap, another survey done by Public Policy Polling still puts Trump seven points behind Biden.

“When we look at New Mexico, it's obviously Hispanics that are causing change,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “We're talking about people who came here legally, and some of them have been here for generations. I mean, it's a border state and they don't like it open border. They don't like what's going on.”

McLaughlin told the DCNF that the reason Trump is polling so strongly in states like New Mexico compared to past elections is because Biden's policies on immigration, crime and the economy have negatively affected residents' quality of life.

“Especially with him sanctuary city stuff, cashless bail, high crimehigh taxes, you're definitely going to see a middle-class, working revolt against Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and Democratic policies,” McLaughlin told the DCNF.

In New York City alone, there are 180,000 asylum seekers flowed across the city since April 2022. Many found generous social programs, which have finally loaded taxpayers, taking the city to to implement budget cuts to get to the end of the month.

Democrats have historically dominated the vote in New York presidential elections, with Biden winning in 2020 23.1% and Clinton winning in 2016, 21.3%.

Despite New York's Democratic track record, Trump now trails Biden by eight points, seconds in a June survey by Siena College. A survey done by Emerson College in May put the former president even closer to Biden, narrowing the president's lead to just seven points. (RELATED: Trump's rosy poll numbers — and the coats — could give New York Democrats a massive November scare)

Current polls in New York represent a big difference from June 2023, when Biden led by 22 points over Trump. seconds to a Siena College survey.

“This is the first time in recent memory that immigration has really affected New York State, and especially New York City,” McHenry told the DCNF. “They have brought the issue of immigration to the doorsteps of many Americans who never had to deal with it, where an open border is no longer just a theoretical construct.”

Jason Lewis, a former Republican representative in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, told the DCNF that states like Minnesota have historically remained blue because of their “urban core” voters despite their large rural populations. The urban core refers to densely populated areas like Minneapolis, Saint Paul, and Duluth, which tend to be Democratic strongholds surrounded by more conservative rural areas.

“Those Democrats who will stay in the urban core will never vote for a Republican,” Lewis told the DCNF. “At best, they will stay home and write [Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York]. But the dynamic in Minnesota is different in that sense, because it's one of those states, primarily a blue state, that's absolutely governed by an urban core.”

Lewis recognizes Trump's appeal among the rural working class and blue-collar workers voters, but questions whether or not their support is enough to tip the scales. Minnesota has voted blue for nearly half a century, most recently with Biden beat the former president in 2020 by 7.2% and Clinton winning by 1.5%.

“In the outer part of the state of Minnesota, there's no question it's red,” Lewis told the DCNF. “But is that enough?”

Polls in Minnesota have been largely mixed, with a Mason Dixon polling strategy poll in June showing the former president behind Biden by four points. Another June poll in the state shows Trump and Biden tied at 45 percent, seconds at Emerson College Polling/The Hill.

“There's no doubt about it,” Lewis told the DCNF. “Trump is on the move.”

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