A preview of the new presidential matchup had the historian known for predicting the outcome of nearly every race since 1984, thinking about who had the edge.
Dating back to President Ronald Reagan's landslide defeat of former Vice President Walter Mondale, American University history professor Allan Lichtman is credited with correctly determining nearly every general election using his White House Keys model.
Now that Vice President Kamala Harris has supplanted incumbent President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, her rating put six of the 13 keys and provisional victory in favor of the crowned nominee over former President Donald Trump.
“It takes six negative keys to count the match the White House has,” Lichtman said during an appearance on NewsNation.
“Right now,” he argued, “the Democrats have lost three keys.”
NEW: The prognosticator who has predicted nearly every election since 1984 says Kamala Harris will likely win the November election.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted that Trump would win in 2016 and Biden in 2020, says his predictions point to a Harris victory.
Lichtman uses “13 keys” to… pic.twitter.com/US6LMgvWlH
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 29, 2024
As discussed earlier this year, the teacher believed Biden was beating Trump before he went on scold corporate media for post-debate coverage that benefited the GOP leader.
Based on the use of true or false questions that awarded “keys” to the incumbents or handed points to the opponent, Lichtman stated that the six favorable keys currently held by Harris include:
- Competition: there was no challenger for ownership,
- Policy Change: The current administration is making major changes in national policy,
- No scandal: He argued that the administration was not tainted,
- Challenger Charisma: Considers the public perception of Trump as neither charismatic nor a national hero,
- Short-term economics: He did not advocate any current economic downturn,
- Long-term economy: It was argued that economic growth over the term exceeded the previous two terms.
Lichtman, meanwhile, saw the GOP holding three keys to the incumbent's lack of charisma, the incumbent's decision not to run and a party mandate through control of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections .
The four keys at hand included foreign policy failure and success, which Licthman seemed unwilling to assign despite the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, growing unrest in The Middle East and the American hostages who remained in the hands of Hamas terrorists for almost 300 days.
“That's why you saw Kamala Harris talking about the need for a ceasefire and the release of hostages,” he said, asserting that foreign policy points were the shakiest keys. “If the Biden administration can pull this off, it may win the key to military/foreign policy success, which they don't have right now.”
Nor was social unrest taken into account, even as Hamas sympathizers spent weeks disrupting cities and college campuses and just days earlier had prompted the reinstatement of fencing around Capitol Hill while the first Israeli Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress.
“The rallies we saw this spring have faded,” he told NewsNation.
The final key took into account a major third-party challenge to which he suggested that environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. he would have to secure at least 10% of the vote to count, which he argued was: “Possible, but not likely.”
That said, Lichtman withheld his final prediction until after the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled to begin in Chicago, Illinois, on August 19.
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