MIAMI – Next week’s first Republican presidential debate already looked like a stern test for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is struggling to overcome falling national poll numbers, a fundraising crisis and an overhaul of his campaign staff. .
Now his tall task seems imposing.
On Thursday, key details about how he might approach the crucial debate were revealed in a report by The New York Times about a trove of documents released online by a political consulting firm associated with Never Back Down, the super political action committee which has in many ways taken for its campaign.
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The advice on display, which included possible lines of attack and debate tactics, could be a little condescending, reminding DeSantis, for example, to be “showing emotion” when talking about his wife and children. Other parts were perhaps too revealing: suggesting the governor was attacking businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who has beaten him in the polls but otherwise had not been widely seen as a candidate on DeSantis’ level.
The release of the documents appeared to leave DeSantis in a no-win situation. Follow the advice too closely, and he risks walking into a political sawmill, with his rivals painting him as too rehearsed, inauthentic or on the duty of political consultants. Ignoring him may be the most likely route, but it could also leave DeSantis open to criticism that he fell short of expectations, for example by not removing Ramaswamy.
“I don’t think anybody has a harder job in the debate than Ron DeSantis,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked on the 2016 presidential campaign of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida. “He’s fighting a lot of skepticism and a lot of hungry challengers.”
On the papers, Conant described his exposure as an unforced error: “The less you say about your strategy before a debate, the better off you’ll be.”
The DeSantis campaign suggested Thursday afternoon that the Never Back Down board had not revealed anything about its debate strategy.
“This was not a campaign memo and we were not aware of it prior to the article,” campaign communications director Andrew Romeo said in a statement. “We are well used to attacks from all sides as the media and other candidates realize that Ron DeSantis is the strongest candidate best positioned to defeat Joe Biden.”
On stage Wednesday, those attacks, and DeSantis’ response, could be the most serious risk: He has appeared prickly in past debates, and his opponents have seized on gaffes. Current challengers like former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, a notoriously combative polemicist, could pose a threat.
So could other challengers seeking to unseat DeSantis as the race’s No. 2, including Sen. Tim Scott, R-C.; the soft-spoken Ramaswamy; or even former Vice President Mike Pence, a longtime conservative radio host accustomed to verbal delivery.
DeSantis’ allies still hope the governor will use the Milwaukee debate to break out of the wide field of contenders that have prevented him from rallying wider support. The debate, they say, is the first time many Americans will tune into the 2024 campaign, allowing DeSantis to tell his story to the largest audience he’s ever faced.
DeSantis has been preparing for the debate with practice sessions at least once a week. He is expected to highlight his policy proposals on immigration, the economy and the fight against China. He’s also been doing a steady round of interviews with the mainstream media, where he’s faced tougher questions.
Much has depended on whether former President Donald Trump, the showman who captures the spotlight, shows up. On Friday, The New York Times reported that Trump had told people close to him that he had decided to skip the debate. Instead, he is said to be planning to hold an online interview with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson.
Regardless of Trump’s attendance at the debate, taking it on remains a problem.
The Never Back Down documents advise DeSantis to defend Trump when Christie, a Trump critic, attacks him, but to tell voters that he is the candidate “who will continue the movement that Donald Trump started.”
DeSantis has walked a similarly fine line in his criticism of Trump this summer, chastising him for not debating and failing to “drain the swamp” as president. But he has also been careful not to offend the ex-president’s legion of supporters.
Without Trump on stage, DeSantis will be the de facto front-runner, meaning he could face a barrage of attacks.
Using the bull’s-eye could be uncomfortable for DeSantis, a 44-year-old Harvard-educated lawyer known for criticism. His opponents will hope to score viral moments that highlight his defensiveness and find him awkward and robotic. A meme gaffe, however transitory, risks overshadowing any strength he might project as a policy expert or decisive young leader.
DeSantis’ most high-profile debates — in his gubernatorial contests against Charlie Crist, a former Florida Republican governor turned Democratic member of Congress, and Andrew Gillum, then mayor of Tallahassee, Fla. — don’t necessarily offer hope to his supporters Now they are largely remembered for encounters that left DeSantis angry or tongue-tied.
Last year, when DeSantis ran for re-election with his sights set on the presidential race, Crist asked his rival if he would “look the people of the state of Florida in the eye” and commit to a full term
“Yes or no?” Crist said, turning to DeSantis, who remained silent and stone-faced, refusing to answer.
“Yes or no, Ron?” Cristo asked again, taking advantage of the dead air.
(According to the rules of the debate, the candidates could not question each other directly, a prohibition that Christ ignored.)
Finally, DeSantis spoke. “Is it my turn?” asked the moderator.
“It’s a fair question,” Christ continued. Then he turned to the audience. “He won’t tell you.”
By the time DeSantis broke through the awkwardness to deliver a seemingly rehearsed counterpunch, calling Christ a “worn out old ass,” the damage was already done.
It was exactly the kind of moment the Christ campaign had been looking for.
“DeSantis doesn’t take punches well,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic strategist who led Crist’s debate preparations. “And his fundamental problem as a communicator is that he is attacking or explaining. It never tells a story. It never reaches people from the heart.”
Karp, who also led Gillum’s debate preparations four years earlier, said DeSantis struggled with a challenging aspect of debate: “Listening to what your opponent has to say and then deploying the right amount of warmth, force and dexterity to counter it.”
That weakness showed against Gillum in 2018.
DeSantis was then criticized for saying voters shouldn’t “cheat it” by electing Gillum, who is black. His comments were widely criticized as racist.
Confronted by the debate moderator, DeSantis interrupted angrily, his voice rising as he said he had defended people of all races as a military and prosecutorial attorney. “I’m not going to bow down at the altar of political correctness,” he added. “I’m not going to let the media spread the word about me.”
Gillum, known as a gifted public speaker, jumped at the chance.
“My grandmother used to say, ‘A run over dog will scream,’ and it screamed across this room,” he said of DeSantis, before taking a sharp jab: “Now, I’m not saying that Mr. DeSantis is a racist. I’m just saying that the racists think he’s a racist.”
DeSantis winced and visibly scoffed.
He had been preparing for the showdown, according to tapes of his debate practice sessions that were leaked this year and first reported by ABC News. One of his advisers, Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., a DeSantis ally who has since backed Trump, had urged him to feel sorry for those who had been offended. (Donalds is black.)
But DeSantis insisted on an aggressive response.
“If I show any weakness in that, I think I lose my base. I think I look less than a leader,” he said. “And so I just think I have to go full throttle and say it’s wrong.”
Separately, in an echo of the advice offered by Never Back Down, the tapes show a counselor telling DeSantis that he should write the word “nice” in all caps at the top of his notebook as a reminder.
Despite the debate stumbling, DeSantis won both elections, besting Gillum and then crushing Crist four years later. And his performance in the 2018 Republican primary debates, when he was able to cast himself as a Trump-backed insurgent, drew better reviews.
Next week, the Trump campaign will pay close attention to the finer points of DeSantis’ performance.
“There’s going to be a whole war room team watching and highlighting every awkward thing that DeSantis does,” said Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump campaign. “He must be on his best behavior.”
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