Experts Baffled by Biden Admin's Claim Rafah Invasion Won't Help Israel Defeat Hamas

The Biden administration's claim that an Israeli invasion of Rafah would not help the nation defeat Hamas or secure a hostage release deal “makes no logical sense,” several experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation .

John Kirby, White House national security spokesman said on Thursday that Israel cannot achieve a “sustainable and lasting defeat” against Hamas by invading Rafah, also claiming it could jeopardize ongoing negotiations to release the hostages in Gaza. Experts told the DCNF that the claim does not hold up, as a military operation is the only way to pressure Hamas into a hostage deal and ultimately achieve victory over the terrorist group.

“A lasting defeat of Hamas certainly remains the Israeli goal, and we share that goal with them,” Kirby said. “Sinking Rafah, a [Biden’s] point of view, it will not advance that goal, it will not achieve that sustainable and lasting defeat of Hamas.”

Two senior defense experts and a former senior US official told the DCNF that Kirby is wrong and that the only way to ensure that Hamas is defeated is through military operations.

“Kirby is wrong,” Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based defense think tank, told the DCNF. “Only the patient, well-planned and well-executed operation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been successful in crushing Hamas and freeing hostages so far.”

“You can't defeat Hamas with good vibes and good words. You defeat them on the battlefield through ammunition, through kinetic action,” Polaris National Security Executive Director and former State Department official Gabriel Noronha told the DCNF.

Kirby and Matthew, State Department spokesman Miller have said the administration believes that if Israel decides to enter Rafah, it will weaken its hand in negotiations to reach an agreement to release hostages currently held by Hamas. Israel has been negotiating with Hamas through international mediators, including the US, for months to reach an agreement that would see a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza region in exchange for its release.

“We actually think that a Rafah operation would weaken Israel's position, both in these talks and to a large extent,” Miller said on May 9.

“If I'm Mr. Sinwar and I'm sitting in my tunnel … and I see innocent people being victims of major combat operations in Rafah, then I have less incentive to come to the negotiating table,” Kirby he said journalists, referring to Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas's military branch.

Hamas is unlikely to be more inclined to move the hostage deal if Israel does not invade Rafah, as the terror group is not concerned about the well-being of Palestinians in the region, experts told the DCNF. The IDF has accused the terrorist group of using civilians as humans shields and embedded within population centers.

“It's absurd. It flies in the face of all the evidence that we've actually seen in this conversation,” Noronha told the DCNF. “There's been nothing the White House has released that makes room for any kind of justification for what they're claiming from the podium.”

Israel's lack of military pressure will make Hamas less incentivized to reach a hostage deal and cease-fire, Shoshana Bryen, a defense analyst and senior director at the Center for Jewish Policy, told the DCNF. Hamas agreed to a ceasefire agreement in November after coming under intense pressure from Israeli forces, but the deal quickly collapsed aside in december

“The only serious negotiation that Hamas did was in the early days, when Israel's fury was evident and accepted by most of the world,” Byren told the DCNF. “Hamas' leadership saw that it could be defeated on the battlefield, so it allowed a cease-fire and released hostages. Since then, the Biden administration has worked to constrain Israel, including holding of arms approved by Congress”.

“Hamas is not stupid. As long as the Biden administration works to limit Israel, Hamas has nothing to give,” Byren said.

Experts who spoke to the DCNF also disagreed with Kirby's assertion that Israel did not need to enter Rafah because Hamas has been largely crippled by Israeli forces since October 7.

“It's like saying, 'Oh, we did chemo for a month.' We have 80% of the cancer, we are ready. We'll just leave now. Again, it makes no sense,” Noronha told the DCNF.

“When someone announces that they want to kill you, they train to kill you, they arm themselves to kill you, they teach their children that if the adults don't finish this generation's work, the children are expected to do it to the next generation,” Bryen told the DCNF. “When they say '100 October 7,' they're not kidding.”

Israeli forces seized control of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday, saying it was a vital chokepoint to stop the flow of weapons into Gaza. seconds in the Wall Street Journal. The IDF is moving more into Rafah's eastern corridors, but has not yet gone into Rafah city, where most of the more than a million refugees are. seconds in The Associated Press.

Biden said during a CNN interview on Wednesday that the administration has not seen Israel cross a line at Rafah, but warned of consequences, including halting military aid, if Israel launches a full-scale invasion.

“If only Israel had listened to the White House [since the war began]18 Hamas terrorist battalions would still be standing, dozens of senior Hamas terrorist leaders would still be alive running terrorist operations, dozens of Israeli and foreign hostages would still be languishing in Hamas captivity, and Hamas would still be in charge of planning the next October 7,” Dubowitz told the DCNF. “The Biden administration's pressure on Israel has only prolonged the war and the suffering on both sides.”

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