Written by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
Europe’s hydro and nuclear output is declining, leading to dire energy problems.
Renewables are scrambling to fill the gap as wind and solar production increases.
The EU may demand increased US LNG imports to meet energy demands.
Last year, Europe teetered on the brink of an energy breakdown as Russian gas flows dried up and most of Europe doubled down on renewables.
The commitment to renewable energies paid off, in a way. Solar and wind electricity generation in Europe reached a record in 2022. In fact, for the first time in history, wind and solar power together produced more electricity than natural gas power plants.
There was only one problem with this. The reduction in hydraulic and nuclear production ended the importance of this record production.
Droughts were severe in Europe last year. They threatened major trade routes such as the Rhein in Germany and the Po in Italy. And they also caused serious declines in hydroelectricity production. For example, in Spain, hydroelectric production was almost halved due to droughts. All this could be repeated this year as well.
Meanwhile, nuclear wasn’t getting that big either. France suddenly discovered that years of underinvestment in maintenance would have consequences: emergency shutdowns of reactors for repairs and maintenance.
The problems cost EDF a massive annual loss of $19 billion as half of its reactors had to be shut down for maintenance. Most blamed the pandemic, but nuclear experts like Mark Nelson saw the roots of the problem far beyond the past when France decided to go for renewables over nuclear.
Despite all these problems, in October, PV Magazine wrote an upbeat article about how wind and solar had made up for reduced hydro and nuclear output. Wind and solar, according to the article, accounted for 24 percent of Europe’s electricity generation between March and September, while at the same time hydro production fell by 21 percent and nuclear by 19 percent.
That might have been the case in 2022, but things are different this year. Wind and solar still appear to be producing electricity at a record pace, but declines in hydropower and nuclear power production are so severe that they are more than offsetting those record production rates, Reuters’ Gavin Maguire reported in a recent column
Maguire noted that Europe managed to increase its wind and solar power capacity by 9 percent last year to 57.29 GW, which was an all-time high. At the same time, however, hydro and nuclear problems dragged down total electricity generation and are still doing so.
In the first quarter, European power generation stood at 1,213 terawatt-hours, which was 6.4 percent lower than output in the first quarter of 2023. This is according to climate change advocacy Ember. According to Maguire, this is not necessarily alarming in itself. This time last year, Europe was emerging from pandemic lockdowns and demand was rising.
Where things could become problematic is later in the year, as business activity across the continent begins to recover from last year’s energy crisis, the Reuters columnist noted. And most of the Russian gas that was available last year is no longer an option.
French nuclear is a great source of hope, but it will be some time before production recovers. Right now, French nuclear plants are producing 17.5 percent less than the average production rate for 2020 and 2021. That’s down from 23 percent last year, so there’s some progress , and that’s a good sign.
Hydro power is more complicated because, although to a lesser extent than wind and solar, hydro depends on the weather. With Europe’s mild winter seeing much less snow than usual, a repeat of last year’s drought is unlikely. In fact, it is a distinct possibility.
This means that Europe may need to import much more LNG from its new main supplier, the United States. Some have worried that the EU is building too much LNG import infrastructure that it would soon become stranded assets, but right now, those assets appear to be vital to the bloc’s energy survival.
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