For ultra-rich Democrats, this is the golden age of political intrigue.
The past three weeks since President Biden withered during the first presidential debate have unleashed a nervous energy that has roused nearly every major Democratic donor and their advisers, turning billionaires settled in for summer vacation into animals shrewd politicians
They are calling every major politician they know, encouraging them to call for Mr. Biden's impeachment. They are dangling money from members of Congress who say the right things and withholding money from those who don't. And even the most reclusive donors talk to reporters, sometimes on the record, about the turmoil within the party establishment.
These are chaotic times. There are so many ideas bouncing around the donor class that some card-carrying members privately say they have trouble keeping track of all the plots. Some of the world's richest people have been locked in a perpetual, almost academic, examination of how much influence they really have to change Mr. Biden's mind.
It would be better funnels the money to a super PAC, which has raised $2 million so far, that it plans to support vulnerable Democratic members of Congress calling for Mr. Biden's impeachment? Or might the smarter move be to loudly raise money for Vice President Kamala Harris, his heir apparent, as an affirmative signal that the president needn't worry about passing the reins? And what about setting aside some money in an escrow account that would be spent only on a Democratic presidential campaign led by someone other than Mr. Biden?
Tom Strickler, founder of Hollywood talent agency WME, said he had recently met in Los Angeles with Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-New Mexico.
“If you don't publicly call for Biden to step aside,” Mr. Strickler who told the team of Mr. Heinrich on Thursday morning, “you won't get a penny from me.”
Mr. Strickler said he had also planned to give the maximum legal amount in August to each of the seven most vulnerable Democratic Senate candidates, but that he would not support them as of now because they have not broken with Mr. Biden. .
“It's a message I've encouraged my friends to send as well,” he said. “If you support Biden, you will lose our support. Switch and out.”
Or, perhaps, there is no leverage at all.
The Supreme Court's Citizens United decision in 2010 threatened to unleash torrents of cash into American politics that critics feared would give too much influence to a small group of partisan billionaires. But since Donald J. Trump ran for president in 2016, major pro-business Republican donors have learned the limits of their powers: They can't dislodge him from the party's nomination that year, and they can't eight years later.
Now, Democratic mega-donors are learning some of the same lessons, especially during a time when Mr. Biden has demonstrated some ability to raise significant money from small-dollar donors.
For all his wealth and ambitions, many Democratic aides and top advisers have resigned themselves to the idea that his influence is quite limited and are trying not to be naïve. A sense of helplessness pervades.
After all, Mr. Biden is not bound, as one top Democratic donor said, to a vote of the rich. And he and his team have faced off against wealthy “elites” trying to push him out of a democratically won Democratic nomination, raising concerns among major donors who are already nervous that their efforts will backfire if they are seen as bullies.
Mr. Biden is likely to be influenced first by his family, including Jill Biden, the first lady, and then by a number of aides who have worked for him for decades. Major donors have debated among themselves about precisely who in their inner circle could be reached and which donors have the best access to these people. But privately, few Democratic donors are optimistic about their own powers, especially considering Mr. Biden's increasingly anti-elite language.
Joe Ravitch, a major Hollywood banker and longtime Democratic fundraiser, said that even before the debate, he had conditioned his donation on pushing for a change at the top of the ticket. But he seemed harsh on whether his defense would accomplish much.
“I can't figure out who, if anyone, has influence on this, but donors don't, no matter what we do,” said Mr. Ravitch. “And speaking out publicly against the president only helps to undermine him. It's a Catch-22.”
Mr. Biden has had relatively few supporters among the nation's top donors. Democrats say most major donors want it done on the side.
But there are some exceptions. Reid Hoffman, the co-founder of LinkedIn, has been the most vocal advocate of staying the course. Alex Soros, the head of one of the Democratic Party's most generous families, has urged the party not to abandon Biden. And Amy Goldman Fowler, a low-profile but major donor who gives millions of dollars a year to the Democratic Party, came out with a rare statement on the record praising the president.
Despite all this turmoil, many Democratic donors are clearly nervous about crossing Mr. Biden publicly, even now, with some worried about weakening him in the general election if he remains the nominee.
Some mega-contributors keep as quiet as possible. Henry Laufer, one of the party's top contributors, told the New York Times a week after the debate that “I have no comment.” A spokeswoman for another Democratic billionaire, Marilyn Simons, also a major party donor, shared that Ms. Simons had “no comment to offer.”
Haim Saban, the Hollywood mogul who has spent tens of millions of dollars for the Democratic Party since Citizens United, was asked for his take on the situation and spoke for many of his peers.
“Silence is golden,” he replied simply.
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