In a significant shift in their recent assessment of Iran's intentions, Israeli intelligence now believes that Iran is preparing a major attack on Israel after all, and that it will happen in the coming days. This comes after Israel concluded that international pressure and US saber rattling had persuaded Iran to let the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah attack Israel to blow up Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 of July
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant shared his country's latest assessment with US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin in a conversation on Sunday, Axios reported, telling Austin that Iran's actions mean the country is preparing a major strike. Also on Sunday, Gallant told an Israel Defense Forces unit that Iran and Hezbollah “are threatening to hurt us in a way that they haven't in the past.”
The Israeli intelligence assessment reflects an ongoing debate within the Iranian government, a source with access to the intelligence told Axios:
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] is pushing for a tougher and broader response than Iran's April 13 attack on Israel, but Iran's new president and his advisers believe a regional escalation now will not serve Iran's interests, the source said.