Did Virginia’s Dem sweep just crush Glenn Youngkin’s political ambitions?

• Virginia Democrats flipped the state House and took the state Senate in a contested legislative election. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin had hoped it would give him a Republican trifecta.
• Youngkin had been campaigning and fundraising for Republican candidates across the state, hoping to hold onto the state House and flip the state Senate, which many thought could be a precursor to a late 2024 presidential run .
• “Everything is possible in politics, but the probability that he will do it and succeed has decreased. His star is not shining as bright after yesterday,” former Virginia GOP chairman and former Virginia state delegate Jeff Frederick told the Daily Caller News Foundation about a potential Youngkin presidential bid. .

Republican losses in Virginia’s legislative elections on Tuesday likely ended any chance of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin running for president in 2024, several state political operatives told the Daily Caller News Foundation, but it may not be a obstacle to his future political ambitions.

Youngkin, through his state political action committee (PAC) Spirit of Virginia, had been campaigning and fundraising across the state for Republican candidates in hopes that the GOP could hold the state House and change the state Senate. After speculation that he might make a late entry into the Republican primary field, political operatives argued that such a move is likely off the table now that Democrats he won he supported the House of Delegates and held the Senate of Virginia, thereby highlighting the conservative agenda of his administration.

“It’s very unlikely,” Chris Saxman, executive director of Virginia FREE and a former state delegate, told the Daily Caller News Foundation about the possibility of Youngkin running for president after the GOP losses. “It was a tough sell to begin with because of the time frame and the former president’s substantial lead, now it’s a virtual impossibility to make the case. [Though] It looks like he picked up a Senate seat, flipping the house is a big loss.”

The Democrats were projected win a minimum of 50 seats in the state House and 20 in the state Senate after campaign cash is pumped in from national party leaders, included of the Democratic National Committee, at the direction of President Joe Biden, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s nonprofit organization.

Although Youngkin insisted that his focus was solely on the Virginia legislative elections various occasions when asked about possible presidential aspirations in 2024, GOP megadonors been to court the governor to run, citing his distaste for former President Donald Trump, who is leading the crowded field by roughly 45 points, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ struggle to gain momentum in the primary.

“I’ve said over and over again how humbling it is to even talk about my name in this context,” Youngkin told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo in late August. “But I’m so focused on Virginia and the election this year to make sure we get it done, we have a giant agenda and so I’m campaigning in Virginia for our House and Senate delegates and senators. I’m not in Iowa, I’m not in South Carolina and New Hampshire, we’re focused on Virginia.”

After Youngkin decided in early May that he would not seek the presidency “this year,” Axios reported on May 22 that the governor was “reconsidering a bid” to launch after the November election.

Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan poll analyst and managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, believes a late entry into the presidential race was always unlikely.

“I think the idea that Youngkin could pull off a win in state legislative races in a credible White House bid was always far-fetched. I just don’t think grassroots Republican voters in other states would care about that,” Kondik said in the DCNF. “If Youngkin had been or would be a strong GOP candidate, it would be because he performed well as a candidate and there was a gap in the race. Right now, there is no gap in the race because Trump is dominating.”

The GOP losses will also hamper the Youngkin administration’s ability to pass key legislative priorities, including choice of school15 weeks ban on abortionand other conservatives elements. When Youngkin he won governor’s mansion in 2021 against former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by nearly 2 points, ended years of Democratic control in Virginia, hoping to continue the momentum in the state legislature Tuesday evening.

“Democrats will also block anything major Youngkin wants to do. Strange as it may sound, this could be good for Youngkin’s standing in Virginia: Passing controversial conservative legislation could have dented his popularity (which remains good) in a leftist state,” Kondik said.

Jeff Frederick, former chairman of the Virginia GOP and a former Virginia state delegate, also threw cold water on the possibility of Youngkin entering the GOP primary field late after Tuesday’s projections, adding that “the major part of their agenda is dead.”

“Everything is possible in politics, but the probability that he will do it and succeed has decreased. His star isn’t shining as bright after yesterday,” Frederick said of a possible Youngkin presidential bid. “He’s going to have to rearrange his schedule to find things for both him and [Democratic] most want to do. They will also have to do the same, as they will not be able to override their veto. It’s likely that both parties want to get some hits, so there will be some progress on things, but probably not on the marquee issues he’s been talking about (and the marquee issues the [Democrats] I’ve been talking).

Youngkin could also run for the Senate after his term ends in 2026, the same year as the Democratic senator. Mark Warner is up for re-election, as Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms.

Saxman doesn’t think the GOP’s legislative losses will play a role in preventing a hypothetical Senate run for Youngkin, adding that he “has a very bright future.” Frederick argued that new Democratic control of the state legislature could even help that campaign, allowing Youngkin to appeal to a larger electorate by showing he has the ability to work across the aisle.

“If I had won control of both houses, then what would have happened is that the General Assembly would have started to pass a lot of things that, frankly, I would have liked, but maybe not all of those things would have been particularly attractive to some people. some of the rich areas,” Frederick said. “And while he would have been a darling of the conservative party and had all kinds of great successes, like, you know, similar to what you might say about Ron DeSantis in Florida, those things may not have gone well across the state . when he’s trying to win another office.”

Spirit of Virginia PAC announced as of early October, it had raised $7.45 million in its third fundraising quarter, bringing its total since March to $15.5 million. The DNC he fell $1.5 million in the race, the DLCC gave $2 million and Pritzker’s Think Big America contributed 250,000 dollars.

Youngkin’s political team has remained largely silent following the election results, with the exception of Spirit of Virginia PAC Chairman Dave Rexrode.

“We are still monitoring a couple of key races and will fully assess where things are in the morning,” Rexrode. he wrote in a tweet Tuesday evening. “We had hoped for a stronger result tonight, but we are proud of the effort all of our candidates have put in in these extremely competitive districts.”

Youngkin’s policy team did not immediately respond to DCNF’s request for comment.

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