As President Joe Biden's support continues to sink, his party is considering the possibility of a crushing defeat in November, a possible Republican wave that would not only elect the former president. donald trump but also sweep the Democrats out of power in Congress.
His anguish over Biden prompted a vulnerable member of Congress, Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), ask the president directly on Friday to consider leaving — a stunning showdown that has deeply shaken Democrats who were already uneasy about the high stakes of the moment. Biden's response, according to one caller: I'm running.
And there is a new urgency. Democrats realize the road to Biden's victory is narrowing. His chances in critical Sun Belt states like Arizona and Nevada are dwindling, some Rust Belt states are in jeopardy, and safe blue areas like New Hampshire are suddenly up for grabs.
Some major donors are threatening to withhold millions of dollars in pledges pressure Biden to stand by, and reward lawmakers who urge the president to let someone else take his place.
All of these forces are fueling panic within the party that Biden's downfall could catapult Republicans to a trifecta in Washington. Some worry that Biden could drag down the rest of the ticket so badly that not only do they fail to retake the House, but Trump and Hill's Republicans could win large enough majorities in both chambers to carry out the GOP's big priorities.
“They're nervous about the next election,” Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) said of his Democratic colleagues calling for Biden to drop off the ticket. “If anyone tells you it's not, they're lying.”
Anxieties about being tied to Biden, who polls show has trailed Trump in key battlegrounds for months but fallen even more recently, permeate the entire ticket. Democrats' quest to assert more local control may also be compromised, as the Biden crisis could jeopardize their attempts to flip legislative chambers in swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, and hold on to Michigan and Minnesota.
“If this was any other Democratic candidate, we could talk about how terrible the 34-count convicted felon is, but we're in this discussion about Biden's age,” said a Michigan state lawmaker who granted the anonymity to speak freely.
More than two dozen lawmakers, Hill staffers, state officials and Democratic operatives were interviewed for this article. Most were granted anonymity to freely discuss the situation or were not authorized to speak publicly.
Inside Capitol Hill, Democrats who fear Biden can't win make up the majority of the party, and a growing number are willing to say so publicly.
“It's over,” one Democratic battleground aide said of the fight to flip the House. “It doesn't matter if they're outscoring him by 35 freaking points. The math doesn't work.”
And among those Democrats, especially in the House, there is a growing fear that the political gravity has shifted dramatically in the past week. On Monday, the Biden campaign had he temporarily quieted his deserters. But on Friday, many senior Democrats believed privately that a push to impeach the president at the highest levels was inevitable, even after he held a nearly hour-long news conference after Thursday's NATO summit specifically to quiet the naysayers.
No one will say out loud that the upper echelons of House leadership want Biden to drop his bid. But lawmakers and top aides say the two people who could end the hand-wringing: Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have decided not to. In private conversations with some fellow Democrats, Pelosi has suggested she wants it to step aside, according to two people familiar with the discussions.
Privately, Democratic leaders know that the more time passes, the worse it is for the party. Jeffries' team had encouraged lawmakers, if they planned to speak, to do so sooner rather than later, according to three people familiar with the discussions, hoping to avoid a trickle of comments from members in the coming weeks.
Jeffries did not release any details of his one-on-one with Biden Thursday night. Those who analyzed his letter afterward, however, said they believed he “gave the bad news,” according to one Democrat.
A spokesman for Jeffries declined to comment on a private meeting.
Democrats, taking stock of Biden's extremely narrow path to victory, are beginning to believe that their personal political interests are being jeopardized along with the president's.
“I think the map is a lot tighter than it was,” said one Democratic strategist. “Obviously, anything is possible and we have many weeks ahead of us. But we have to be perfect and we can't afford to be wrong, and I don't think that's what we're seeing right now.”
Biden is still certain to win California's blue electoral votes. But Democratic lawmakers, top aides and consultants fear their struggles could jeopardize otherwise safe incumbents and dangerously reduce offensive opportunities, costing them control of the House.
“I don't think there's any going back from the debate,” said a Democratic consultant who works on several battleground races, including in California. “There is nothing that can be done to repair it.”
A group of former House Democrats is so worried about Biden's vote that they wrote a letter to Biden calling for an “open convention” to salvage the party's chances in November.
Part of the problem: Biden is polling well behind his 2020 vote share in numerous competitive House districts. Internal polls in May and June show he lost districts in New York and California that he held by double-digit margins four years ago.
That has left key Democratic candidates in the “furious” position of “staring at the dam,” the consultant said: grimly aware that Biden's problems could sink them, hoping for change but unable to speak for fear of antagonizing the White House.
The panic among California Democrats isn't based on a drop in the post-debate polls, but a fear that there's only so much altitude they can hold if Biden closes in at the top of the ticket.
Democratic incumbents in the toughest seats could still hang on, if they can keep running well ahead of Biden and raising huge amounts of cash. Democratic polls conducted in June for an outside group showed incumbent Democrats in at-risk seats were an average of 9 points ahead of Biden in their districts, according to a person with direct knowledge of the poll.
“If Biden remains the nominee and shows real weakness, can you have this massively split ticket?” said a strategist. “It's not the current survey data [that’s the problem]is being projected.”
Some Democrats are now openly saying they believe Trump will win the election so he can position himself as a check on his power. Among them are Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), who hold districts Trump won in 2020.
Party operatives have begun seriously considering a broader shift toward that message to address voter anxieties about Trump's victory.
“There's going to be a big pivot to 'we've got to get Trump in check,'” one strategist said.
New York State could play a crucial role in controlling the House, with up to seven rotating seats. Support for Biden among Democrats running in those seats is eroding, but not broken. So far, only Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.), who represents a Hudson Valley seat, has explicitly called on Biden step aside and not work in November. But he avoided discussing the president's possible drag vote in his argument.
Other Democrats expressed concerns, including Josh Riley, who is challenging Rep. Marc Molinaro (RNY) for an upstate seat, and he told POLITICO that voters are “not wrong” to wish they had different options in the presidential race. And Laura Gillen, taking on Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (RNY) in Long Island, refused to defend Biden in an interview with POLITICO last weekfocusing on the importance of Democrats keeping the House, even if Trump wins. The top of the ticket is only one factor for House candidates, but some fear that in a close race it could be the deciding factor.
Four years ago, Biden was a desired candidate in part because of his strong appeal to large groups of voters, from suburban women in the Midwest to black voters in the South. But now, suddenly, it has become radioactive.
Democrats are spending a record amount of money in state legislative races this cycle in an attempt to regain power from the GOP, and there is some concern that Biden's unpopularity could slow those efforts.
That fear is causing some battleground state legislative candidates to distance themselves from Biden, pushing voters to believe state lawmakers will have a bigger impact on their daily lives than Washington politicians.
“Would we like the poll to be really clear at the top of the ticket, and Biden is 10 points ahead?” said one Michigan state lawmaker who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “Of course, but there's never a world where we don't panic and work like we don't need every last vote.”
Nicholas Wu, Myah Ward and Melanie Mason contributed to this report.