Former President Donald Trump has opened up an eight-point lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical five-way presidential race in Arizona, according to an AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll.
The survey find that Trump has 45 percent support among likely voters in Arizona, putting him comfortably in the lead. Biden ranks second with 37 percent of the response, followed by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 11 percent.
From there, the Green Party's Jill Stein checks in at three percent, while Libertarian Chase Oliver gets zero support. Another four percent of the 600 likely voters surveyed are undecided.
The poll also included a sample of 800 likely voters age 50 and older, and found that Trump has a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over Biden in the deeper field.
The poll was taken before and after Trump was convicted in the Manhattan business records case on May 30. Field dates are May 28 to June 4, 2024, and the margin of error is ±4 percent for the 600 likely voters and ±3.5 percent. for the strictly 50 or more sample.
Trump maintains a strong lead in a two-way race with Biden among respondents 18 and older, with 50% and 44% respectively. Four percent of respondents are undecided and two percent support “someone else.”
In both the deepest field and the two-way race, Trump has a six-point lead with independents.
Arizona is one of several swing states that played a key role in deciding the last two presidential elections. The Grand Canyon state went red for Trump in 2016 over twice-failed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 3.5 percentage points.
However, in 2020, Biden shifted blue by just three-tenths of a percentage point. Trump won 49.06 percent of the vote to Biden's 49.36 percent.
Biden's low approval rating and Trump's strong approval rating in this poll indicate that voters have soured on Biden throughout his tenure. Only 36 percent of respondents give Biden positive marks, while 62 percent disapprove of his performance.
By contrast, a majority of 53 percent say they approve of Trump's performance since his 2017-2021 tenure, while 46 percent disapprove.
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