CNN’s Harry Enten was visibly agitated to report that Donald Trump’s poll numbers in a hypothetical 2024 showdown against Joe Biden have increased since the latest false accusation against him and his associates.
“This is [from] Quinnipiac University. It was a two-point race in February. Look where he is now, it’s a one point race. This is well within the margin of error. Take one thing away from this: There are a lot of Democrats who simply can’t believe that Trump can’t win again. The poll indicates that Trump is, in fact, in a stronger position right now than he was during the entire 2020 campaign, according to national polls. If we had statewide polls, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Trump was ahead in the swing states that matter most.
Notably, Quinnipiac University polls have historically massively underestimated Republican support. Heading into the 2020 presidential election, for example, Quinnipiac predicted Biden would win by a 10-point margin, beating Trump 51-41. The official results ended up being 51.3-46.8, meaning Quinnipiac underestimated Trump’s support by 5.5 percentage points.
That’s a pretty big margin of error…and even bigger when you factor in the margin of error.
Matt Palumbo is the author of Fact-Checking by Fact-Checkers: How the Left Hijacked and Weaponized the Fact-Checking Industry i The Man Behind the Curtain: Inside George Soros’ Secret Network
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