Kamala Harris' honeymoon bounce in the polls has Democrats excited for the first time in a long time this election. Even with this boost in enthusiasm, he's still only managing to take a small lead within the margin of error of the RealClearPolitics average. However, his position appears to be much stronger than that of Joe Biden, but CNN's Harry Enten warns them that Harris does not have the election in the bag, not by a long shot.
To explain why, he looked at battleground state polls from the previous two election cycles to see how far they were from the results.
“We published these poll numbers yesterday, you know, the New York Times-Siena College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos poll, which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially in her side. But I just want to step back and point out that we've been here before,” he began.
“So on August 13th, how close were the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?” he continued “And that's 2016 and 2020. […] Take a look here in 2016, the average poll of the states I mentioned, the Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was undervalued by 9 points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It was not a unique one. look at this It was underrated by 5 points on average. And of course Kamala Harris' lead in those New York Times Siena College polls was 4 points in each of those key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
As such, Enten told Harris supporters they shouldn't be celebrating right now. “The bottom line is this, if you have any idea, if you're a Kamala Harris fan and you want to open the bottle of champagne, pop the cork, don't. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a vote swing like we've seen in previous years between now and the bottom line, Donald Trump would actually win.”
recommended: LOL! Not even KJP can name any of Kamala's political achievements
But what about the surge in Democratic enthusiasm? According to Enten, Voter enthusiasm does not always translate into actual voter turnout. It compared the certainty of voter turnout in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In May, 62% of Joe Biden supporters said they were almost certain to vote, but that number has fallen slightly to 61%.
In contrast, Donald Trump supporters have seen a slight increase in certainty, from 58% in May to 60% now. Despite these small changes, Enten suggested that the overall situation remains largely unchanged, stressing that enthusiasm does not necessarily equate to guaranteed voter turnout.
“There may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is, we're not seeing that necessarily translate into the near-certain vote,” he said, before saying that “Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13, 2020 or 2016.”
3 points of caution for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls right now and the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump is more popular now than at this point in 2016 or 2020.
3. Democrats do not say they are more likely to vote now than they were in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
Remember, experts widely agree that Harris is in the midst of a honeymoon rebound and that it will eventually fade. If that's the best he can do, then he's got some real problems.
English 
Español de Venezuela 