President Joe Biden’s approval rating has fallen to the lowest level since he took office, according to the new IBD/TIPP poll. Disapproval of Biden’s economic policies is reaching new heights as financial stress mounts amid rising interest rates, rising gas prices and renewed student loan payments.
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The October IBD/TIPP poll shows that 36 percent of Americans 18 and older approve of how Biden is handling the presidency, and 54 percent disapprove. Biden’s net approval rating fell to -18 points from -8 points in September, when 41% approved and 49% disapproved of Biden’s job performance. The September rebound in Biden’s approval rating, after two months at 38%-51%, proved fleeting.
Details of Biden’s approval rating
The October IBD/TIPP poll showed that 73 percent of Democrats now give Biden favorable marks, while 17 percent disapprove of his job performance. This is down slightly from 75% to 16% in September, but has increased from 65% to 22% in August.
Biden’s weakness among independents grew a little more serious. Now, 59% of independents approve of Biden’s job performance and 26% approve, up from 58% disapproval and 29% approval in September.
Republican disapproval of Biden became a touch more extreme. GOP voters now disapprove of Biden by 89%-7%, up from 86%-9% last month.
Biden’s approval rating among poll participants making up to $75,000 is actually unchanged from September, with 35 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval.
However, Biden’s support fell off a cliff among those making more than $75,000. This group of higher earners now disapprove of Biden by 54% to 39%. Biden is underwater again among the top people after a 59% approval rating and 35% disapproval rating in September. Before that, higher earners disapproved of Biden by 48%-41.5% and 47%-43% in August and July.
The Fed’s key inflation rate fell in August, but Treasury yields rebound
Biden’s approval rating is sinking among college graduates
Biden’s approval among college graduates is also underwater, with 44% approval and 48% disapproval. That’s a big drop after positive approval ratings of 53%-40% in September and 50%-44% in August. The resumption of federal student loan payments, after a three-and-a-half-year moratorium, and the cancellation of Biden’s loan forgiveness program may be a factor.
After the June 30 Supreme Court ruling, Biden announced a new plan to lower monthly payments, raising the level of income borrowers must earn before being responsible for student loan payments to about $33,000 a year . This could save many borrowers $1,000 a year in annual payments and reduce payments to zero for others.
Biden’s job approval among adults 18-44 also turned negative, with 35% approval and 49% disapproval compared to 46%-41% in September.
Adults 45 and older continue to widely disapprove of Biden’s job performance, 57% to 37%, little changed from 56.5% to 37% in September.
Approval of President Biden’s policies
Americans now disapprove of Biden’s economic policies by more than 2 to 1, 56% to 24%. That’s a big deterioration from 50% to 31% in September.
Inflation is certainly one of the main sources of Biden’s poor economic reviews. Labor Department data show that American employers added more than 13.45 million jobs in the first 31 months of Biden’s presidency. Meanwhile, average hourly wages have grown a solid 4.3% over the past year. However, inflation has eaten up all that increase and more for many Americans.
The IBD/TIPP survey finds that only 16% of adults say their wages have kept pace with inflation, down from 20% in September. Meanwhile, 60% say they haven’t kept up, up from 54% last month. Survey responses do not necessarily line up with official inflation numbers. The Labor Department says average real hourly earnings rose 0.5% over the past year, meaning wages have slightly outpaced inflation for the average worker.
Still, with higher interest rates, renewed student loan payments and higher gas prices all taking a toll, the IBD/TIPP index that measures stress related to finances rose 2, 4 points up to 70.5. This is up from the reading of 69.8 in April 2020, just after the Covid lockdown and the highest since December 2008. Readings above 50 indicate increased stress.
An increase in border crossings and the declaration of a migrant crisis in cities like New York may also be eroding support for Biden. Disapproval of his immigration policies rose to 56%-20% in October from 51%-26% the previous month. 35% of adults now list immigration as one of their top 3 concerns, up from 27% a month ago.
Investors Sour On Biden
Biden’s approval rating among investors dipped underwater to 45%-50% in October from 56%-40% positive approval in September. IBD/TIPP counts as investors those respondents who say they have at least $10,000 in family-owned mutual funds or stocks.
The stock market had its worst month of the year in September, after a spectacular rally this year driven by actions of artificial intelligence. Through Friday, the S&P 500 has lost 6.6% from its 52-week high on July 31, but remains 20% off its Oct. 12 bear market closing low.
Since Election Day on November 3, 2020, the S&P 500 is up 27.3%.
Be sure to read the IBDs The big picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
The president’s biggest problem is among non-investors, who now disapprove of Biden’s job performance 55%-33%, slightly worse than last month’s 54%-35% split.
The October IBD/TIPP survey reflects online surveys of 1,378 adults from September 27-29. The results come with a credibility interval of +/- 2.7 points.
Presidential Leadership Index
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index fell 5.3 points to 39. That’s the lowest level since December 2017, former President Donald Trump’s first year in office. Readings above 50 are net positive, while readings below 50 are negative. The Presidential Leadership Index combines poll readings on how American adults feel about Biden’s personal qualities, presidential performance and leadership attributes. Biden’s favorability fell 6.8 points to 39.5. Biden’s job approval fell 5 points to 40.3, while his leadership rating fell 3.8 points to 37.2.
Please follow Jed Graham on X/Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.
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