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Monday, January 12, 2026
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HomeHappening NowAmerica is experiencing a massive population shift and it's bad news for...

America is experiencing a massive population shift and it's bad news for Democrats

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New data from the Census Bureau revealed that Democratic-led states are still losing population, a development that could have electoral implications when the government redistributes congressional districts in 2030.

Oregon, California, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania, all states with Democratic governors and Democratic-controlled state legislatures, lost between 0.01% and 0.52% of their population between July 2022 and July 2023. seconds at the Census Bureau. Left-leaning states saw similar declines in the run-up to the 2020 census, prompting them to losing seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College, a result that could occur again in 2030 if current trends persist.

“On the face of it, the trends look pretty bad for Democrats” in terms of House redistricting, Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

“But it is also premature to extrapolate the trends of the last three years to the next seven years,” he qualified. “It's very likely that we'll see a continued shift from California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania to the Sun Belt and more Republican-leaning states, but the magnitude of that shift is up in the air.”

New York saw the biggest exodus, with a net population loss of 101,984 people, according to census estimates. California had the second-worst net loss with 75,423 people, followed by Illinois' loss of 32,826 people.

A spokesman for the California governor's office told the DCNF that the state's population decline was less this year than last year.

West Virginia, a Republican-led state, also saw a decline in population. Louisiana, which has a Democratic governor and a Republican state legislature, also lost population.

Some states, on the other hand, saw substantial population increases.

Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona saw the biggest net gains, with each state growing 1% or more. Texas added 473,453 more residents than it lost, and Florida, a close second, saw a net increase of 365,205 people.

Each of the five states with the largest net population increases have Republican-controlled legislatures, and four of the five have Republican governors.

Wasserman told the DCNF that “his suspicion” is that people who leave traditionally Democratic states and move to more Republican ones are likely to be more conservative than people in their home states, but also more liberal than people in states to which they move.

The Census calculated these figures by estimating the base population of the states, adding births, subtracting deaths and adding net migration to the state.

Some Democratic policies could be to blame for the large number of people leaving these states, according to public opinion polls and policy reports.

A 2021 report Erwin Antoni, an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, and Stephen Moore, co-founder of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, found that New York's high taxes would result in a net loss of 1 million residents over a decade. New York's population decline from 2022 to 2023 is consistent with their predictions.

Meanwhile, thirty percent of Californians said they were considering leaving the state because its laws don't fit their personal views. seconds to a survey conducted by a non-profit group based in California.

Left-leaning states like New York, Illinois and California lost seats in the House after the 2020 census, while right-leaning states like Texas, Florida and Montana gained seats. The American redistricting project estimates that if current demographic trends hold, conservative states will continue to pick up seats in the House while their liberal counterparts will again lose seats.

The offices of the governors of Oregon, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois did not immediately respond to DCNF's requests for comment.

All republished articles must include our logo, the name of our reporter and their affiliation with DCNF. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us [email protected].

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