American computer scientist and techno-optimist Ray Kurzweil is a long-standing authority on artificial intelligence (AI). His 2005 best-selling book The Singularity Is Near sparked imaginations with sci-fi-like predictions that computers would reach human-level intelligence by 2029 and that we would merge with computers and become superhuman around 2045, which he called “the singularity”. Now, nearly 20 years later, Kurzweil, 76, has a sequel, The Singularity Is Nearer, and some of his predictions don't seem so preposterous anymore. Kurzweil's day job is a principal researcher and AI visionary at Google. He spoke to the Observer in his personal capacity as an author, inventor and futurist.
Your projections for 2029 and 2045 have not changed…
I have remained constant. So in 2029, for both human-level intelligence and artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is a bit different. Human-level intelligence generally means AI that has reached the capability of the most skilled humans in a given domain, and by 2029 will have achieved it in most respects.
(There may be a few transitional years beyond 2029 when AI hasn't surpassed the best humans in some key skills like writing Oscar-winning screenplays or generating deep new philosophical insights, although it will). AGI stands for AI that can do everything any human can do, but at a higher level. AGI sounds more difficult, but it comes at the same time. And my estimate of five years from now is really conservative: Elon Musk recently said it will happen in two years.
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