CNN's data guru says Biden's historically bleak re-election odds may have sparked early debate

CNN's chief data reporter Harry Enten said Thursday that President Joe Biden's agreement to an early debate with former President Donald Trump may be due to a historical trend that suggests the incumbent's chances of reelection are slim.

Trump is beat Biden 1.1% nationwide, according to the RealClearPolitics average and a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found the former president leading 13% among likely voters in Nevada, 9% in Georgia and 6% in Arizona. Incumbents who head into presidential debates while voting behind their competitor have historically lost re-election, which may be why Biden is deciding to debate much earlier than usual, Enten told “CNN News Central.”

“I think he wants to upset the apple cart a little bit here because the incumbents who are at the tail end of the first debate, look at this. Jerry Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in '80 George HW Bush in 1992 and Donald Trump of course in 2020 . What do all four have in common besides being good-looking men? They all lost re-election,” Enten said. “So Joe Biden is trying to say, wait a minute, I look at this story, I don't like this story, I want to change it a little bit. Maybe if I can get the debates going earlier, maybe if I have a good debate all of a sudden I can change the “poll, because at this point, Joe Biden needs something to change. Because if he doesn't, he's going to end up like these four men on the screen.”

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Biden challenged Trump on Wednesday at two televised debates, proposing a series of conditions that included no live audience and microphones being cut during the other candidate's speaking time. Both candidates later accepted CNN's offer for a June 27 debate.

neither said Monday that Trump's lead in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Georgia and Arizona is disastrous for Biden's re-election chances.

“These battleground states in the Sun Belt, frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster,” he said. “The smallest lead is in Arizona for Donald Trump, he's up six. Look at that, nine in Georgia, 13 in Nevada. My goodness, my goodness, my goodness. That's a lot, no Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it in 2004.”

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