Multiple third-party candidates could sway the 2024 presidential election in key battleground states if there is a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, political observers and poll analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Green Party candidate Cornel West, a Libertarian Party candidate, a No Labels candidate and probably Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be on the ballot in 2024, which could shift more support from Biden than Trump, poll analysts and political strategists said. DCNF.
“I imagine a world where we have two, three, four legitimate third parties, and unlike usual, they will all have 1%, 2%, they could get 5% or 6%, and that, without a doubt . . , will be the biggest element of this election,” Mike McKenna, GOP consultant and president of MWR Strategies, told the DCNF.
With another presidential election looming in 2024, third parties are likely to have an impact on the general election in key battleground states if there is a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, poll analysts said and political observers at the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Multiple third-party candidates could be on the ballot in 2024, including a Green Party candidate, a No Labels candidate, a Libertarian Party candidate and possibly Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent Several poll analysts and political strategists believe additional third-party candidates will likely shift more support away from Biden, potentially allowing Trump to return to the White House in 2024, they told the DCNF.
“If there is a rematch between Biden and Trump, there will be a significant number of voters who have negative views of both candidates, given that both have favorable numbers only around 40% and unfavorable above 50%. These are conditions ripe for increased third-party voting,” Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan polling analyst and editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told DCNF. “I wouldn’t expect the third-party vote to be that big, but the margins in key states are likely to be so small that third-party candidates could end up playing spoiler.”
Cornel West is running for the Green Party nomination, many are running for the Libertarian Party nomination, and the centrist organization No Labels is considering a third-party ticket in 2024, with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin often mentioned as a possible contender. Kennedy, who is currently seeking the Democratic Party nomination, is expected to switch his party affiliation to run as an independent in Philadelphia on October 9.
Many attribute Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat to Green Party candidate Jill Stein, arguing that if Stein’s votes had gone to Clinton, Trump would not have won. Some have indicated that a similar phenomenon is likely to occur in 2024, but on a larger scale with the potential for more third-party candidates on the ballot, they told the DCNF.
“Jill Stein won enough votes to give President Trump Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania … third parties have a long history of screwing up,” Bruce Mehlman, political analyst and founder of Mehlman Consulting, told the DCNF. “The calculation of most observers seems to be that while Joe Biden has a slightly higher ceiling than Donald Trump, he also has a lower floor than Donald Trump. And the fear among Democrats is that a third party will take more voters of Biden than of Trump.”
Mike McKenna, a GOP consultant and president of MWR Strategies, echoed Mehlman’s sentiment, telling the DCNF that the “fundamental reason” Clinton lost was because of Stein’s candidacy.
“The 2024 election is very similar, with one major exception, and that is 70 percent of voters don’t want any of these guys running,” McKenna said. “I imagine a world where we have two, three, four legitimate third parties, and unlike usual, they will all have 1%, 2%, they could get 5% or 6%, and that, without a doubt . . , will be the most important element of these elections.”
McKenna added that because Biden’s support is “much softer” than Trump’s, those third-party candidates are likely to take more of the president’s votes, which is key in battleground states that could cut -se to a few thousand votes.
An Emerson College poll released in early August indicated that Trump and Biden were tied for a head-to-head matchup in the battleground state of Michigan. With West in the mix, Trump would beat Biden by 2 points, followed by the Green Party candidate at 4 percent, according to the poll.
Because the election will likely be “incredibly close,” a third-party candidate could win enough votes in a swing state to sway the election, Mehlman said. If 2024 isn’t a rematch between Trump and Biden, McKenna and Melhman don’t think third parties will have as much of an effect because there will be “less desire for change” among voters, Melhman said.
According to a No Labels/HarrisX poll, a majority of voters in eight battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) do not want either Trump or Biden to run for a other mandate The poll suggested that 63% of voters would “consider voting for a moderate or independent candidate” if there is a rematch between Trump and Biden.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for a 2024 Republican and Democratic national primary, based on the most recent poll, shows Trump and Biden leading their respective camps by 42 and 50 points, respectively. Trump is currently leading Biden by 1.3 points in a general election matchup, according to the RCP average.
The Green Party has ballot access in 17 states and Washington, DC, according to its website. No Labels has secured ballot access in ten states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon, Utah, South Dakota, Nevada and Florida) and plans to reach 28 states by the end of the year .
John McLaughlin, CEO and partner of McLaughlin & Associates, a polling firm that works closely with the Trump campaign, told the DCNF that Democrats are concerned that voting for a third-party candidate is “a vote for Trump.”
“They know that Trump’s base is very, very strong, much more so than Biden’s. And the majority of the votes for these independents are coming from Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, and Trump is already ahead,” McLaughlin said, referring to a poll he shared with the DCNF that has Trump leading Biden by 4 points.
In a three-way general election matchup between Trump, Biden and West, the former president won 43% of the vote, followed by Biden with 38% and West with 6%, according to the poll conducted between the 22nd and 26th of September In a four-way race with Manchin as the No Labels candidate, Trump led with 40%, and Biden got 36%, Manchin received 6% and West had 4%.
“The polls generally suggest that Biden is a little bit more hurt by third parties than Trump, but that’s not automatically how it should end,” Kondik said.
Jon McHenry, a GOP poll analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, isn’t convinced third parties will favor one party over the other in 2024, he told the DCNF.
“I saw, depending on who No Labels nominates, that it’s kind of a safety valve for some, probably not Republicans, but at least some kind of conservative-leaning independents, who can’t pull the trigger on Biden again, but they “They’re also saying, ‘You know what, I think Trump committed treason and, you know, maybe at that point he’s been found guilty of one felony or five counts,'” McHenry said. “So I think it could affect, assuming Trump is the nominee, Trump as much as it affects Biden.”
Trump, Biden, West, Kennedy, Manchin, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party and No Labels did not immediately respond to DCNF’s requests for comment.
Post written by Mary Lou Masters. Reprinted with permission from DCNF.
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