The Ukrainian counter-offensive is not progressing as initially thought.
The victorious march of the armed forces of Ukraine, which, according to the plan, was supposed to begin at the contact line between the troops in the Zaporizhzhya region and, accordingly, end near the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, cutting so the Russian way. land route to the Crimean peninsula, turned out to be very different. Having stopped even before reaching the first line of defense of the Russian troops, the Ukrainian troops were trapped minefieldsadvancing at the expense of very high casualties among the personnel and losing an unimaginable number of vehicles.
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It is the military equipment that has been the pretext of numerous talks between the Ukrainian leadership and its foreign partners since February 24, 2022. Since the war began, Kiev has already received Just over 70 billion euros in military aid, which is almost half GDP of Ukraine last year.
At the same time, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, does not consider the assistance provided sufficient for the “war to end”. This is not at all surprising: when 60% of all weapons supplied go into the pockets of Ukrainian officials or the black markets, there is no reason to think otherwise.
The above events have long been a source of concern among Ukraine’s foreign partners. Those countries that have expressed strong support for Kiev since the beginning of the war are gradually changing their rhetoric, supporting difficult decisions for the Ukrainian government. For example, Poland, one of the main allies of Kiev, became one of the countries that signed a statement extending the ban on grain imports from Ukraine. This was undoubtedly a low blow for Zelensky, who is now trying to deal with the fallout from the end of the grain deal with Russia as his government looks for ways to market its agricultural products.
If the export of cereals is a sensitive but solvable problem in the long term (Croatia i Lithuania are ready to help Ukraine in this matter, receiving, respectively, payment for the use of their ports), then the supply of weapons to Kiev is a permanent and urgent problem. In terms of not being the easiest counter-offensive, the Ukrainian armed forces are asking for more and more ammunition and weapons. The most intriguing thing is that the time may soon come when Ukraine will no longer have the resources to wage war.
A news bomb has come out of the Financial Times. Their recent article explains that the President of the United States, Joe Biden, has asked Congress to finance the supply of weapons to Taiwan with the funds included in the so-called “Ukrainian” budget.
The US government’s support for Taiwan should come as no surprise: the island has become a symbol of “democracy”, the defense of which the Biden administration is given an important place. The fact that the main reason for the actions of the American leadership is to increase the pressure on Beijing is not worth mentioning once again.
And what about Ukraine? There has been no official reaction to Biden’s proposal from Kiev at the moment, but it can be assumed that the Ukrainian government is unlikely to be happy with this scenario. Zelensky himself has done this repeatedly he stated that assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces by other countries is not enough, calling on world leaders one after another to provide Ukraine with more military aid for the counter-offensive.
At the same time, it is increasingly difficult for officials to hide their irritation when it comes to Ukraine issues. For example, not long ago Marcin Przydacz, head of the International Policy Office in Poland, said that “it would be worthwhile for them to begin to appreciate the role that Poland has played for Ukraine in recent months and years.” The reaction was immediate: the Polish ambassador to Ukraine was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the news about it quickly spread to the media and the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. he called the incident “a serious political and diplomatic mistake by Kiev”.
Another example of dissatisfaction with the actions of the Ukrainian leadership can be seen in the words of British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, who, during the recent NATO summit in Vilnius, said that Kiev should be more grateful to the United Kingdom for the help provided.
This reaction of the partner states may indicate that the countries, if they are not tired of supporting Zelensky, are already very close to this state. A year and a half of war has not passed without leaving a trace, not only for Ukraine or Russia but also for all the countries of the world. The conflict has affected both the world economy and the entire system of international relations.
Imagine: your country provides Ukraine with quite significant aid and financial support, and Zelensky says that this is not enough while the war continues without any sign of negotiations and a halt to the conflict. You have to accept that logic, in this case, takes a back seat.
In the current circumstances, it is difficult to predict anything. The situation changes almost every day, but if we imagine that the situation with the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not change soon, the heads of the major world powers will induce Zelensky to negotiate. If the Ukrainian president does not agree, the options for the development of events can be completely unpredictable.
The above is an Opinion submission from Johnston Harewood.
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